# Public hit-rate ledger — data

> Downloadable, public hit-rate ledger for every High Signal market call. Live forward predictions and backfill calibration by signal type, scored against subsequent market moves. CC-BY-4.0.

Canonical: https://highsignal.app/data/hit-rate

[← data directory](https://highsignal.app/data)


Every published High Signal market call scored against subsequent market moves. Live = forward predictions made before the scoring window closed. Backfill = historical replay used to calibrate scoring. Push means the move was too small to call. Hit-rate excludes pushes. Licensed CC-BY-4.0.

[↓ hit-rate.json](https://highsignal.app/data/hit-rate.json)[↓ hit-rate.csv](https://highsignal.app/data/hit-rate.csv)[interactive track record →](https://highsignal.app/track-record)

live predictions

2,094

67% hit-rate · 2 hit · 1 miss

backfill calibration

142

33% hit-rate · 8 hit · 16 miss

signal types scored

555

574 across live + backfill

Small sample: only 3 live predictions have a directional outcome. Treat this as calibration evidence, not proof.

## live predictions by signal type

| type | n | hit | miss | push | pending | hit-rate |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| partnership | 291 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 291 | — |
| new product launch | 198 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 198 | — |
| security risk | 110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 110 | — |
| design win | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 82 | — |
| earnings surprise | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70 | — |
| export restriction | 65 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 64 | 0% |
| developer ecosystem drift | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 | — |
| talent movement | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 | — |
| regulatory change | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | — |
| supply chain disruption | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | — |
| ai edge hardware | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | — |
| hyperscaler internal chip | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | — |
| data center announcement | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | — |
| guidance change | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 100% |
| pricing change | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | — |
| foundry capacity announcement | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | — |
| capex change hyperscaler | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | — |
| analyst revision | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | — |
| restructuring | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | — |
| benchmark result | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | — |
| data center buildout | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | — |
| competitive position signal | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | — |
| ip lawsuit | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | — |
| custom chip development | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | — |
| devtool trust | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | — |
| m and a | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | — |
| insider transaction cluster | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | — |
| competitive position sentiment | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | — |
| power ppa | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | — |
| physical ai acceleration | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | — |
| regional compute buildout | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | — |
| hbm supply shift | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | — |
| sovereign ai announcement | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | — |
| prediction market sentiment | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | — |
| competitive threat | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | — |
| ai policy competition | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | — |
| ai pricing pressure | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | — |
| design loss | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | — |
| competitive position change | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | — |
| capex change neocloud | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | — |
| demand signal | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | — |
| market share signal | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | — |
| ipo announcement | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | — |
| antitrust action | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | — |
| ai chip development signal | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| technology gap widening | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| product launch delay | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| funding round | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| compute budget controversy | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| compute budget discrepancy | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| capacity expansion | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| ipo filing | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| custom chip design | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| customer churn signal | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| demand surge | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| market sentiment shift | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| prediction market probability | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| product delay | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| capex change | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| prediction market signal | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| grid constraint | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| product shipment risk | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| custom ai chip development | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| reputation risk | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| reputational risk | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| market share claim | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| quantum foundry announcement | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| competitive sentiment decline | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| process node innovation | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| monopoly position update | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| credibility concern | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| compute budget misrepresentation | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| ai scaling law discovery | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| misrepresentation allegation | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| competitive threat signal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| industrial ai adoption | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| market sentiment | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| market share change | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| credit facility update | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| custom chip development signal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| market cap milestone | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| compute capacity constraint | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| competitive position | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| capacity constraint hyperscaler | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| legal risk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| corporate bond issuance | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| competitive intensification | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| hbm roadmap update | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| ai capacity constraint | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| market sentiment indicator | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| trust concern | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| market sentiment signal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| transparency concern | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| market share loss | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| government funding award | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| competitive threat debunked | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| monopoly durability signal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| model release delay | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| equity offering oversubscribed | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| technology roadmap doubt | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| competitive threat perception | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| custom chip intention | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| compute claim dispute | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| ecosystem expansion | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| gpu compute disclosure controversy | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| competitive entry | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| partnership speculation | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| competitive position erosion | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| custom chip probability increase | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| developer adoption spike | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| regulatory probe | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| product launch risk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| capital raise | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| product timeline risk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| government grant award | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| demand supply imbalance | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| technological competitiveness signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| funding round valuation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ipo capital raise | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly assessment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| legal settlement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| bullish sentiment signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly probability shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| legal setback | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capacity expansion plan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute disclosure controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| new entrant speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive threat intensifies | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| labor action capex risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| regulatory risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cxl specification release | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom chip design plan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| equity offering | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| portfolio company ipo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai adoption slowdown forecast | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| hbm demand concern | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom ai chip partnership | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| app store review cluster | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom silicon push | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market share sentiment prediction | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai hiring surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capex increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ipo listing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute budget credibility | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| profitability deterioration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| osat capacity expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai model launch delay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| lithography alternative emergence | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| software optimization release | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly status | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive dynamics | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| corporate ai pullback | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market cap expectation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| debt financing risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai ecosystem expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai hardware roadmap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly position signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive entry threat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| architecture market shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| low cost pc push | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| alleged compute misrepresentation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| semicap revenue decline | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| sentiment signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute budget discrepancy allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| data center construction blockage | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology node shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market sentiment event | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| production ramp | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| nuclear regulatory clearance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai innovation gap opinion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| new revenue stream | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| china domestic euv risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| clean energy investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive moat threat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| pre earnings market cap surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market cap speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| funding valuation event | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| terafab advancement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai infra demand boost | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai inference workload shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capex increase semiconductor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| on device ai challenge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| gpu lead time shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| modular data center trademark | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor product cancellation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| product demand surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| security vulnerability cluster | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cuda moat threat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| credit downgrade and project hurdle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| supply chain shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai infrastructure partnership | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| optical supply chain expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor entry pc market | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| euv technology competition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor confidence decline | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| supply chain disclosure concern | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market position announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| revenue milestone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| subsidiary ipo announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai platform expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai infrastructure financing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| memory capacity expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competition threat refuted | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai revenue milestone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive outlook change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| china demand softening | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| node competitiveness doubt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip probability increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| internal chip development signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| government backing for data center power | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| share rout | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cloud compute deal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| talent retention risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| efficiency claim controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology gap signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| disclosure controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive position weakness | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| trust risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| institutional ownership change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| euv monopoly signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| new model launch | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| demand weakness signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| funding mega round | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute funding | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute usage integrity question | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| euv monopoly reaffirmed | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute demand increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly threat sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| geopolitical trade risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly durability | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai infrastructure demand boost | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| speculative partnership indicator | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| nationalization risk signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| valuation increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| model competitive outlook | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market leadership claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip development speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| prediction market bullish consensus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market cap sentiment signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| platform update | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| inference optimization tool | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| foundry customer signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| geopolitical risk increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute buildout signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive threat dismissed | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| semiconductor fab investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute budget discrepancy signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| investor sentiment shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute budget claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| social media ban | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| talent risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| workforce expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| space based ai infrastructure plan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| government contract win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai strategy validation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| equity offering consideration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| earnings sell off | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom chip partnership | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive threat increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| euv monopoly persistence | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| data center attack | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| pricing pressure | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive moat confidence | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly sentiment update | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| government stake discussion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| government contract loss | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market probability change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| quantum investment plan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| gpu compute allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute claim controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai inference demand uptick | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market cap sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute strategy change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| large stake disclosure | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market position update | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| developer ecosystem sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| labor disruption threat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor shipment doubt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| deal failure | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| product delay signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| vmware customer exodus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| partnership anticipation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| water constraint | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market position claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market share gain | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive position degradation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| labor dispute resolved | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technological capability signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| starship test flight setback | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| chip development signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| sovereign data center risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| bullish options activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capacity demand surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| production capacity expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| memory supply source change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| infrastructure financing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| trust allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| gpu quality concern | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| data center tenant risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market implied dominance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai wearable development | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technological catch up doubt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip prediction | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom silicon demand increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip development indication | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly probability signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| software compatibility issue | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market share leadership claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| revenue reacceleration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| hyperscaler ai model availability | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive pressure | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive advantage | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai partnership speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive threat assessment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| institutional selling | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cuda kernel optimization | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| operations expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute efficiency controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| trust signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| manufacturing capacity investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| misrepresentation claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| product ship uncertainty | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| platform outage | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| sp500 inclusion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| prediction market consensus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai investment sentiment shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| foundry strategy setback | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| euv monopoly outlook | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| hyperscaler capacity shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| infrastructure software development | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive positioning change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| export restriction risk signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| neocloud funding | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| customer renewal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ecosystem moat signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom silicon shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| call option volume surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| packaging supply chain development | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom ai chip design | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| device financing program launch | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| prediction market odds | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| advanced packaging competition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| sentiment survey | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| gpu usage reporting accuracy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| governance risk escalation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| chinese model adoption surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology gap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology milestone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive sentiment change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| product economics shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| rumor denial | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive threat lithography | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive positioning | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capacity investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology milestone miss | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| demand signal regional | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| valuation surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| validation differentiation trend | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive parity sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| geopolitical escalation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor viability market signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| foundry profit recovery | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| open source ai optimization | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| valuation target increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cloud capacity squeeze | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| berkshire investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| euv output capacity upgrade | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| grant award | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive product sample | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive moat reinforced | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| investment ipo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor emergence | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| facility expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| tariff mitigation move | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive and talent risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly risk perception | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| valuation sentiment shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| hiring spree | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| major shareholder guidance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| product rumor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| venture capital investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| short seller activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute capacity deal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| developer ecosystem expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| government intervention foundry | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capex increase ecosystem | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| relative valuation signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai startup funding | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| labor settlement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| sector sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| server expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| inference cost reduction | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive disruption | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| notable investor activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| chip design intent signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive threat climate | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ecosystem confidence signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| enterprise cloud migration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly status uncertainty | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| memory capex increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capital raise ai lab | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive position market sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| risc v adoption signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| chip manufacturing order | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| megafab announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| developer ecosystem moat sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| index inclusion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai capex increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market sentiment positive | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive threat emerging | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai inference cost inversion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| gpu budget controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| chip strategy signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| open model competition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| agentic ai cpu demand increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| government takedown request | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| agentic ai cpu demand | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| china ai chip competition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive positioning doubt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| nasdaq 100 addition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai custom silicon indication | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai packaging demand outlook | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| prediction market bullish | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| index addition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| geopolitical risk signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| supply chain investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ipo filing rumor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai model api delay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| valuation expansion signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| geopolitical data center risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ecosystem growth signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai market size prediction | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology development risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| customer event | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor threat dismissed | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute cost discrepancy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| claim credibility doubt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| prediction market consensus signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| packaging capacity expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| shipment delay risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| manufacturing expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai memory demand outlook | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| data center nationalization risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ipo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| prediction market indicator | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| revenue acceleration and infrastructure deepening | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| neocloud market growth forecast | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ipo signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| short report published | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| revenue growth acceleration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| euv tool order surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capital injection | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology node gap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| mega funding round | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip competition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| prediction market sentiment shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| investor confidence signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai talent hiring surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom chip intent | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| trust speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| platform adoption growth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cuda ecosystem momentum | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly risk update | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai agent regulatory shutdown | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capital markets activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| process technology breakthrough | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| listing announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom ai chip signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute claim discrepancy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| valuation consensus shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom chip exploration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| chatgpt superapp overhaul | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| valuation perception shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ecosystem moat uncertainty | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly position reaffirmed | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ipo filing and regulatory engagement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| security incentive change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cloud ai competitive pressure | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly status confirmation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive position deterioration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive technology gap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| partnership direction | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip development indicator | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capital equipment demand increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| customer win and capital raise | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| customer financing program | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute budget allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cloud ai spending | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive dethronement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| corporate debt issuance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai capability gap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| institutional position increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| server manufacturing expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| customer order win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor market sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| gpu usage credibility | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip development | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| regulatory clearance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| fundraising valuation surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| partnership risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market cap expectation signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology leadership change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| revenue acceleration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cuda compatibility alternative | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| customer commitment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ipo filing preparations | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ipo timeline acceleration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| product launch delay regulatory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly uncertainty signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| fundraising round | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| award win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| portfolio rotation signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| euv monopoly confirmation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology stagnation signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| test subsystem market share claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| trust controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| customer adoption signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| product launch ramp | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| memory cost impact on apple | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology gap sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom chip speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| demand outlook positive | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| photonics investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| power architecture promotion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| stock split | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| reputation signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| automotive memory demand shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive momentum | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive standing signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market cap trajectory indicator | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| eda competitive threat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom chip development intention | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| customer appreciation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| asic capacity unlock | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai capability leap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| bullish market sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| gpu compute misrepresentation allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| memory supply diversification | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| growth funding round | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| demand indicator | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| chinese ai model competition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute budget disclosure controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive leadership claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| fundraising event | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| training cost integrity signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive weakness signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive positioning signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| foundation model leader rating | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip sell off | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai assistant test | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |

## backfill calibration by signal type

| type | n | hit | miss | push | pending | hit-rate |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| partnership | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 100% |
| guidance change | 20 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 20% |
| design win | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | — |
| data center announcement | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | — |
| new product launch | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | — |
| export restriction | 10 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 33% |
| capex change neocloud | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | — |
| restructuring | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 50% |
| foundry capacity announcement | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | — |
| earnings surprise | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| capex change hyperscaler | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | — |
| analyst revision | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 100% |
| hbm supply shift | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| regulatory change | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| insider transaction cluster | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| ip lawsuit | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| talent movement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| gpu lead time shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| antitrust action | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |

## schema

signal_type

The signal type slug.

cohort

Live or backfill.

hit

Moved in the predicted direction.

miss

Moved against the prediction.

push

Move was too small to call.

pending

Scoring window has not closed.

total

hit + miss + push + pending.

hit_rate

hits / (hits + misses).