# RBI MPC meeting LIVE: Jefferies India predicts Governor Sanjay Malhotra to announce a 25 bps rate hike — retained record
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source: [news](https://highsignal.app/data/news) (news:india-mint-markets) published 2026-10-07 01:07 ingested 2026-10-07 02:57
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RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: As major global central banks shift towards monetary tightening amid rising inflationary pressures, attention has now turned to the RBI MPC meeting decision today, with investors closely watching how the central bank will respond to rising inflation risks. Bets are high on a 25 bps repo rate hike, but the focus will be on guidance on inflation, GDP, Reverse Repo Rate, CRR, SLR, and other economic indicators, which RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra and other Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members will put forward.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra's speech will begin at 10:00 AM and can be viewed online on the RBI's official YouTube channel — youtube.com/channel/UCIfCOl43tunZVNYafeC4RQA. The RBI Governor will later address a press conference at 12:00 noon, where he is expected to share the government's guidance on the national economy.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may raise the key repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on October 7, according to nine of 10 economists surveyed by Mint, with only one respondent expecting a pause.
If the RBI increases the rate at the upcoming policy meeting, it will mark the first hike in more than three years.
The last repo rate hike was in February 2023, when the RBI raised the rate by 25 basis points to 6.50%. It then kept the rate unchanged through 2023–24 before beginning its rate-cut cycle in 2025. Currently, the RBI's policy repo rate stands at 5.25%.
"We expect a 25-bps repo-rate hike in October 2026 with a neutral stance along with measures to absorb durable liquidity, potentially around ₹1 lakh crore, and cumulative tightening of 50–75 bps in the hiking cycle over the next 12-15 months, depending on the evolving global conditions, inflation risks and currency stability," said Abhishek Bisen, Head - Fixed Income, Kotak Mahindra AMC.
Bisen underscored that the RBI now faces stronger growth alongside rising inflation and external pressures.
"Q1FY27 GDP growth of 7.8% may prompt an upward revision to the RBI’s forecast, while increasing inflation, expensive crude oil, rupee depreciation and narrowing India-US yield differentials strengthen the case for tightening," said Bisen.
Speaking on the possible outcomes that the market expects, Avinash Gorakshkar, Founder of Avinash Mentor Research, said, “The market is expecting three kinds of outcomes: first, a 25 BPS interest rate hike, second, no change in the interest rate hike and third, more than 25 BPS interest rate hike.”
25 BPS rate hike | Impact on Indian stock market
Decoding the impact on the Indian stock market, if the RBI MPC meeting outcome is 25 BPS rate hike, Avinash Gorakshkar said, “The market is widely expecting a 25 BPS rate hike in this RBI MPC meeting. However, in the case of 25 BPS rate hike, the market is expected to remain unmoved as it has already discounted the 25 BPS rate hike.”
Interest rate unchanged | Impact on Dalal Street
“If the RBI MPC meeting comes out with the decision to keep the interest rate unchanged, then we can expect a bull run on Dalal Street, as the market is widely estimating a 25 BPS rate cut and it has already discounted this,” said Gorakshkar.
However, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, believes the RBI MPC meeting may leave the key rates unchanged.
“After the positive fortnightly US inflation and US Non Farm Payroll Data, pressure on the US Fed to hike interest rates has eased. So, this has sparked a buzz on Dalal Street that the RBI MPC meeting may conclude with key rates unchanged. If this happens, there can be a big buying in the rate-sensitive segments: banking and financial, real estate, auto, capital goods, infrastructure, and consumer durables,” the SEBI-registered market expert said.
More than 25 BPS rate hike
Due to crude oil prices remaining elevated, inflation fears have resurfaced worldwide. As India meets 85% of its crude oil demand through imports, inflation is expected to rise if crude oil doesn't return to normal levels. So, a section of the market is expecting a surprise in the RBI MPC meeting outcome, and that surprise could be an interest rate hike of more than 25 BPS.
The 2022 tightening episode following policy normalisation / crude-inflation spike was large with the RBI raising rates by 250bps. Alongside global rate / commodity price worries, deficient monsoon has created upside risk to inflation in India as well. Upcoming Oct'26 RBI meeting may thus see a rate hike; but we expect the current rate-hike cycle to be mild (50-75bps). RBI's CPI projections for Mar27 qtr. (5.5%) imply real rates are largely neutral (current repo rate at 5.25%). Already, the 10-Y bond yields in India are +45bps in last few weeks and overnight markets indicate two 25-bps hike into December 26.
The RBI has maintained the repo rate at 5.25% for four consecutive policy reviews, following a cumulative 125 basis point reduction in 2025.
At its August MPC meeting, the RBI kept the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and maintained its ‘neutral’ stance, as policymakers sought more clarity on the inflation outlook amid uncertainties surrounding the southwest monsoon, El Niño, geopolitical tensions and global trade policies.
The RBI Governor’s policy announcement will be streamed live on the central bank’s official YouTube channel from 10:00 a.m. The Governor’s subsequent media briefing will also be available to watch on the same platform.
You can also follow Mint for live updates and the latest developments from the RBI’s policy announcement.
All respondents expect the rate-setting panel to retain its neutral stance, signalling that the central bank wants to keep its options open rather than commit to a prolonged hiking cycle.
Asit Manohar has nearly two decades of experience in the mainstream media. In this period, he has served esteemed media organisations like NDTV Profit, The Economic Times, and Zee Business. He has been working at LiveMint Digital since April 2021. During these two decades of journey in mainstream media, Asit has mainly covered external affairs, markets and personal finance. However, his earliest beats include railways, SME, MSME, and politics (Congress beat). Some of his features on political, economic, and foreign policy are documented in the parliamentary records.
While pursuing his MA (Mass Communication, Session 2004-06), Asit began his media career as a stringer at All India Radio in Varanasi. At AIR Varanasi, Asit worked with the Gyanvani, Yuvvani and Vividh Bharti teams. After working for nearly one year at AIR Varanasi, he shifted to print journalism and started working as a stringer for the HT Media Ltd, Varanasi. At HT Media Ltd in Varanasi, he covered the BHU beat.
Asit has also worked with some brokerage houses. He has worked with Religare Broking and India Infoline, where he assisted the research team in developing and executing trade strategies for intraday cash, F&O, and commodities.
Asit is a Gold Medalist in MA (Mass Communication) from BHU, Varanasi. He did his BSc. (Hons) in Mathematics from Magadh University, Bodh Gaya. Asit was a National Talent Scholarship holder during his senior secondary studies (1988-91).
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