[← signals](https://highsignal.app/signals) 2026-08-24·[ASML](https://highsignal.app/entities/ASML)·hyperscaler internal chip meddown # Manifold consensus predictions indicate a potential shift in ASML's EUV machine dominance. Manifold consensus predictions indicate a potential shift in ASML's EUV machine dominance. window 30devidence 11confidence score 71price ASML $1763.76 sharecopy link ## confidence score Usable evidence: enough corroboration to publish, with 1 independent source class. 71 medium confidence1 independent source classesmarketmedium high without independent sourcespasses publish gate priced-in check ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet. not priced in as of 2026-08-217d n/a45d n/a90d +8%[yahoo](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ASML) ## signal brief Manifold consensus predictions indicate a potential shift in ASML's EUV machine dominance. The consensus suggests that ASML may not remain the world's only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026, with a 79.92% probability. This is further supported by a 68.89% probability that ASML will not be the world's only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027. Additionally, there is a 56.45% probability that China will invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030. The consensus also predicts a potential monopoly challenge, with a 96.17% probability that ASML will not be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024. Furthermore, there is a 50.00% probability that the US will force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029, and a 43.06% probability that the US will cut ASML off Cymer before 2030. These predictions suggest a potential loss of market share and a shift in the competitive landscape for ASML. What the sources said: - Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92% [Source 1] - Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54% [Source 2] - Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77% [Source 3] - Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89% [Source 4] - Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06% [Source 5] - Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45% [Source 7] - Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00% [Source 8] ## source data used market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Jarom/will-asml-still-be-the-worlds-only)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/JamesSanders/does-china-have-an-asml-euv-machine)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/MattBrooks/will-asmls-revenue-increase-every-y)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Jarom/by-2027-will-asml-still-be-the-worl)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/0xseraphim/will-the-us-cut-asml-off-cymer-befo)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/ScroogeMcDuck/will-peter-wennink-ceo-of-asml-be-c)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/JamesTerry/will-china-invent-a-domestic-versio)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/0xseraphim/will-the-us-force-asml-to-halt-expo)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Donald/will-asml-be-a-monopoly-in-euv-lith)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/WerargraegRedmane/will-there-be-evidence-of-asml-sell)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/AutopoieticErgodicity/will-asml-reach-1700-at-least-once)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%” ## spillover entities [SAMSUNG](https://highsignal.app/entities/SAMSUNG)[INTC](https://highsignal.app/entities/INTC)[SK_HYNIX](https://highsignal.app/entities/SK_HYNIX)[MU](https://highsignal.app/entities/MU)[NVDA](https://highsignal.app/entities/NVDA)[AMD](https://highsignal.app/entities/AMD)[AAPL](https://highsignal.app/entities/AAPL)[AVGO](https://highsignal.app/entities/AVGO)[MRVL](https://highsignal.app/entities/MRVL)[SMIC](https://highsignal.app/entities/SMIC)[ALAB](https://highsignal.app/entities/ALAB) sharecopy link Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. --- Canonical HTML: https://highsignal.app/signals/asml-asml-s-euv-machine-dominance-challenged-by-manifold-consensus-predictions