[← signals](https://highsignal.app/signals) 2026-08-24·[ASML](https://highsignal.app/entities/ASML)·hyperscaler internal chip medup # Manifold markets consensus data suggests ASML will remain the world's sole producer of EUV machines until the end of... Manifold markets consensus data suggests ASML will remain the world's sole producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027. window 30devidence 11confidence score 71price ASML $1763.76 sharecopy link ## confidence score Usable evidence: enough corroboration to publish, with 1 independent source class. 71 medium confidence1 independent source classesmarketmedium high without independent sourcespasses publish gate priced-in check ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet. not priced in as of 2026-08-217d n/a45d n/a90d +8%[yahoo](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ASML) ## signal brief Manifold markets consensus data suggests ASML will remain the world's sole producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027. This is supported by the 68.89% consensus on the question 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?' However, the data also shows uncertainty around China's ability to develop its own EUV machine. The 56.45% consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?' indicates a possibility of Chinese competition emerging in the long term. Additionally, there is a 50% chance the US will force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029, according to the Manifold market. This could potentially limit ASML's ability to sell EUV machines to China, further cementing its dominance in the market. In contrast, the 43.06% consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?' suggests a potential risk of US export restrictions, which could impact ASML's supply chain and revenue. Overall, the data points to ASML's continued dominance in EUV machine production, but with potential long-term challenges from Chinese competition and US export restrictions. ## source data used market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Jarom/will-asml-still-be-the-worlds-only)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/JamesSanders/does-china-have-an-asml-euv-machine)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/MattBrooks/will-asmls-revenue-increase-every-y)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Jarom/by-2027-will-asml-still-be-the-worl)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/0xseraphim/will-the-us-cut-asml-off-cymer-befo)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/ScroogeMcDuck/will-peter-wennink-ceo-of-asml-be-c)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/JamesTerry/will-china-invent-a-domestic-versio)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/0xseraphim/will-the-us-force-asml-to-halt-expo)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Donald/will-asml-be-a-monopoly-in-euv-lith)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/WerargraegRedmane/will-there-be-evidence-of-asml-sell)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%” market·2026-08-24·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/AutopoieticErgodicity/will-asml-reach-1700-at-least-once)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-24) “Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%” ## spillover entities [SAMSUNG](https://highsignal.app/entities/SAMSUNG)[INTC](https://highsignal.app/entities/INTC)[SK_HYNIX](https://highsignal.app/entities/SK_HYNIX)[MU](https://highsignal.app/entities/MU)[NVDA](https://highsignal.app/entities/NVDA)[AMD](https://highsignal.app/entities/AMD)[AAPL](https://highsignal.app/entities/AAPL)[AVGO](https://highsignal.app/entities/AVGO)[MRVL](https://highsignal.app/entities/MRVL)[SMIC](https://highsignal.app/entities/SMIC)[ALAB](https://highsignal.app/entities/ALAB) sharecopy link Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. --- Canonical HTML: https://highsignal.app/signals/asml-asml-s-euv-machine-dominance-expected-to-continue-through-2027-with-china-s-dome