[← signals](https://highsignal.app/signals) 2026-08-22·[ASML](https://highsignal.app/entities/ASML)·export restriction meddown # Manifold markets consensus suggests that the US may force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029. Manifold markets consensus suggests that the US may force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029. window 30devidence 11confidence score 71price ASML $1763.76 sharecopy link ## confidence score Usable evidence: enough corroboration to publish, with 1 independent source class. 71 medium confidence1 independent source classesmarketmedium high without independent sourcespasses publish gate priced-in check ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet. not priced in as of 2026-08-217d n/a45d n/a90d +8%[yahoo](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ASML) ## signal brief Manifold markets consensus suggests that the US may force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029. This is supported by the 50% consensus on the question 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?'. The consensus on the question 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?' is 6.28%, indicating a potential risk of export restrictions. Additionally, the 15.54% consensus on the question 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)' suggests that China may already have access to ASML's technology. The 43.06% consensus on the question 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?' further supports the potential for export restrictions. The 56.45% consensus on the question 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?' indicates that China may be working towards developing its own technology. The 96.17% consensus on the question 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?' suggests that ASML's dominance in the market may be a factor in the potential for export restrictions. ## source data used market·2026-08-22·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/0xseraphim/will-the-us-force-asml-to-halt-expo)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-22) “Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%” market·2026-08-22·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Jarom/will-asml-still-be-the-worlds-only)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-22) “Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%” market·2026-08-22·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/JamesSanders/does-china-have-an-asml-euv-machine)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-22) “Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%” market·2026-08-22·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/MattBrooks/will-asmls-revenue-increase-every-y)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-22) “Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%” market·2026-08-22·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Jarom/by-2027-will-asml-still-be-the-worl)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-22) “Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%” market·2026-08-22·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/0xseraphim/will-the-us-cut-asml-off-cymer-befo)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-22) “Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%” market·2026-08-22·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/ScroogeMcDuck/will-peter-wennink-ceo-of-asml-be-c)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-22) “Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%” market·2026-08-22·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/JamesTerry/will-china-invent-a-domestic-versio)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-22) “Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%” market·2026-08-22·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Donald/will-asml-be-a-monopoly-in-euv-lith)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-22) “Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%” market·2026-08-22·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/WerargraegRedmane/will-there-be-evidence-of-asml-sell)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-22) “Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%” market·2026-08-22·[manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/AutopoieticErgodicity/will-asml-reach-1700-at-least-once)·[source day](https://highsignal.app/data/markets?date=2026-08-22) “Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%” ## spillover entities [SAMSUNG](https://highsignal.app/entities/SAMSUNG)[INTC](https://highsignal.app/entities/INTC)[SK_HYNIX](https://highsignal.app/entities/SK_HYNIX)[MU](https://highsignal.app/entities/MU)[NVDA](https://highsignal.app/entities/NVDA)[AMD](https://highsignal.app/entities/AMD)[AAPL](https://highsignal.app/entities/AAPL)[AVGO](https://highsignal.app/entities/AVGO)[MRVL](https://highsignal.app/entities/MRVL)[SMIC](https://highsignal.app/entities/SMIC)[ALAB](https://highsignal.app/entities/ALAB) sharecopy link Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. --- Canonical HTML: https://highsignal.app/signals/asml-us-export-restrictions-may-force-asml-to-halt-china-exports