signal type · other
export restriction risk
Every published export restriction risk signal with its public hit-rate inline. Belongs to the other family, which means fresh export restriction risk calls borrow confidence from sibling types in the family until they earn their own sample.
all-time signals
3
published only
direct hit-rate
—
no scored predictions yet
family hit-rate
40%
15 across other
family
other
see signal-families.ts for mapping
definition
What is a export restriction risk signal?
A export restriction risk signal is any High-Signal-published call tagged export_restriction_risk by the ingest pipeline. The exact extraction rules live in python/ingest and the family rollup in /methodology. Every published instance carries ≥ 2 independent sources per the cite-or-kill rule.
every published export restriction risk signal
2026-08-06 · ASML · down · low
On 2026-08-06, a cluster of Manifold prediction markets on ASML showed a nuanced risk profile for the EUV lithography...
2026-08-05 · ASML · neutral · low
Manifold prediction market snapshots taken 2026-08-05 reveal a split outlook for ASML.
2026-08-03 · ASML · neutral · low
Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-03 provide a snapshot of forward-looking sentiment on ASML's EUV franchise...