public hit-rate ledger
Track record
Every published market signal scored against subsequent market moves. Read Live first; use Backfill only to calibrate the scoring system.
Hit-rate excludes pushes. Push means the market move was too small or inconclusive.
Use for trust
Live
Forward predictions made before the scoring window closed.
Use for tuning
Backfill
Historical replay. Useful, but not proof of product quality.
Do not overread
Combined
Mixed view for debugging only; it should not be marketed yet.
Live predictions
real forward calls67%
hit-rate
2
hit
1
miss
0
push
This is the only section that should count for public trust later.
| type | n | hit | miss | push | hit-rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| guidance_change | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| export_restriction | 41 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| new_product_launch | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| foundry_capacity_announcement | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_infra_demand_boost | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| earnings_surprise | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| partnership | 122 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| competitor_sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| analyst_revision | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| design_win | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| prediction_market_bullish_consensus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| labor_dispute_resolved | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| monopoly_status | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| insider_transaction_cluster | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| gpu_compute_misrepresentation_allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| government_contract_win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| pre_earnings_market_cap_surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| investor_sentiment_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| deal_failure | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| data_center_announcement | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| developer_ecosystem_drift | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| customer_renewal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_chip_development_signal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| benchmark_result | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| compute_disclosure_controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| supply_chain_disruption | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| security_risk | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_infrastructure_partnership | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| new_entrant_speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_strategy_validation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| demand_supply_imbalance | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| misrepresentation_allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| institutional_selling | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| competitive_entry_threat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| market_position_update | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| sp500_inclusion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| devtool_trust | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ip_lawsuit | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| hbm_supply_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| grant_award | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| restructuring | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| government_grant_award | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ecosystem_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| gpu_budget_controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ipo_filing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| technology_investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| fundraising_round | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| quantum_foundry_announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| geopolitical_escalation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| regulatory_change | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| trust_speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| corporate_ai_pullback | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| pricing_change | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| trust_allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| nasdaq_100_addition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| talent_movement | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| m_and_a | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| competitive_leadership_claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| short_seller_activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_memory_demand_outlook | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| compute_strategy_change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| efficiency_claim_controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| operations_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| new_model_launch | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| custom_chip_probability_increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| compute_budget_controversy | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_innovation_gap_opinion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| demand_signal | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| labor_settlement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| profitability_deterioration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| funding_round | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| compute_budget_discrepancy_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_custom_silicon_indication | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| market_cap_milestone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| inference_optimization_tool | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| customer_adoption_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| government_funding_award | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| competitive_position_signal | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| call_option_volume_surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| market_position_announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| photonics_investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| bullish_options_activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| demand_outlook_positive | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| partnership_anticipation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| funding_valuation_event | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| competitive_dethronement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| competitor_market_sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| reputation_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| valuation_perception_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| optical_supply_chain_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| valuation_surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| monopoly_threat_sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| credibility_concern | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| competitive_position_sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| prediction_market_signal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| custom_chip_intention | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| hyperscaler_internal_chip | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| reputational_risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| mega_funding_round | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_wearable_development | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_pricing_pressure | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| partnership_speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| compute_budget_misrepresentation | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| notable_investor_activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| reputation_risk | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| speculative_partnership_indicator | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| market_sentiment_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| node_competitiveness_doubt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| sovereign_ai_announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| hbm_roadmap_update | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| competitive_sentiment_decline | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| compute_budget_discrepancy | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| revenue_milestone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| foundry_customer_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| gpu_usage_credibility | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| market_share_leadership_claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_startup_funding | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| compute_budget_claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| product_rumor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| regional_compute_buildout | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_model_launch_delay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_platform_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| major_shareholder_guidance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| claim_credibility_doubt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| regulatory_risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| capacity_investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| megafab_announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| capex_change_hyperscaler | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_model_api_delay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| industrial_ai_adoption | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| competitive_positioning | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_partnership_speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| product_delay | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| partnership_direction | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| social_media_ban | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| capex_increase_ecosystem | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| packaging_capacity_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| alleged_compute_misrepresentation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| custom_ai_chip_development | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| index_inclusion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| market_probability_change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| index_addition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| monopoly_uncertainty_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| compute_claim_dispute | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| chatgpt_superapp_overhaul | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| market_share_claim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ecosystem_growth_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| competitive_standing_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| market_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_chip_sell_off | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| euv_output_capacity_upgrade | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| funding_round_valuation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| custom_ai_chip_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| market_sentiment_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| product_launch_delay_regulatory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| product_launch_delay | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| euv_monopoly_confirmation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| transparency_concern | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_infrastructure_financing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| chip_manufacturing_order | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| competitive_positioning_change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| gpu_lead_time_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| antitrust_action | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| capacity_expansion | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| gpu_usage_reporting_accuracy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| customer_churn_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| platform_update | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| new_revenue_stream | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_edge_hardware | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| capex_change_neocloud | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| manufacturing_capacity_investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| institutional_position_increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| credit_facility_update | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| osat_capacity_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| power_ppa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| award_win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| euv_monopoly_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| euv_monopoly_outlook | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| competitive_threat_perception | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| valuation_increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| capex_change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| demand_surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| on_device_ai_challenge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| customer_commitment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| demand_indicator | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| governance_risk_escalation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| competitor_confidence_decline | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_policy_competition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| china_demand_softening | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| platform_outage | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| cxl_specification_release | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| technology_milestone_miss | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| market_sentiment_event | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| sector_sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| competitive_pressure | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| capital_markets_activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| automotive_memory_demand_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| neocloud_funding | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| regulatory_probe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ecosystem_confidence_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| compute_usage_integrity_question | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ai_capability_gap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| nuclear_regulatory_clearance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
Backfill calibration
historical replay33%
hit-rate
8
hit
16
miss
1
push
Use this to spot weak signal types and scoring bias, not to claim accuracy.
| type | n | hit | miss | push | hit-rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| partnership | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| analyst_revision | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| restructuring | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| earnings_surprise | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33% |
| export_restriction | 10 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 33% |
| guidance_change | 20 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 20% |
| gpu_lead_time_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| foundry_capacity_announcement | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| regulatory_change | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| capex_change_neocloud | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| capex_change_hyperscaler | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| hbm_supply_shift | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| data_center_announcement | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| insider_transaction_cluster | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| new_product_launch | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| antitrust_action | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| design_win | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ip_lawsuit | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| talent_movement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |