Track record
Sample warning: the live cohort below has only 7 scored predictions. Any rate on a sample this small is statistically meaningless — read it as “direction of travel,” not as a reliable accuracy claim. Wait until n ≥ 10 (per signal type) before trusting it. The number is what it is; we'd rather expose that than dress it up.
Every published market signal scored against subsequent market moves. Read Live first; use Backfill only to calibrate the scoring system.
Hit-rate excludes pushes. Push means the market move was too small or inconclusive.
Forward predictions made before the scoring window closed.
Historical replay. Useful, but not proof of product quality.
Mixed view for debugging only; it should not be marketed yet.
Live predictions
real forward callsThis is the only section that should count for public trust later.
| type | n | hit | miss | push | hit-rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| guidance_change | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| export_restriction | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| new_product_launch | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| foundry_capacity_announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
Backfill calibration
historical replayUse this to spot weak signal types and scoring bias, not to claim accuracy.
| type | n | hit | miss | push | hit-rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| partnership | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| analyst_revision | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| restructuring | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| earnings_surprise | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33% |
| export_restriction | 10 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 33% |
| guidance_change | 20 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 20% |
| gpu_lead_time_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| foundry_capacity_announcement | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| regulatory_change | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| capex_change_neocloud | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| capex_change_hyperscaler | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| hbm_supply_shift | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| data_center_announcement | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| insider_transaction_cluster | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| new_product_launch | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| antitrust_action | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| design_win | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| ip_lawsuit | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |