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public hit-rate ledger

# Track record

Every published market signal scored against subsequent market moves. Read Live first; use Backfill only to calibrate the scoring system.
Hit-rate excludes pushes. Push means the market move was too small or inconclusive.

Use for trust

Live

Forward predictions made before the scoring window closed.

Use for tuning

Backfill

Historical replay. Useful, but not proof of product quality.

Do not overread

Combined

Mixed view for debugging only; it should not be marketed yet.

## Live predictions

real forward calls

67%

hit-rate

2

hit

1

miss

0

push

This is the only section that should count for public trust later.

type | n | hit | miss | push | hit-rate |

guidance_change | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

export_restriction | 65 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |

new_product_launch | 142 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

foundry_capacity_announcement | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_infra_demand_boost | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

earnings_surprise | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

partnership | 235 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitor_sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

analyst_revision | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

design_win | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

prediction_market_bullish_consensus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

labor_dispute_resolved | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

monopoly_status | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

insider_transaction_cluster | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

gpu_compute_misrepresentation_allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

government_contract_win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

pre_earnings_market_cap_surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

investor_sentiment_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

deal_failure | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

data_center_announcement | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

developer_ecosystem_drift | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

customer_renewal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_chip_development_signal | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

benchmark_result | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_disclosure_controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

supply_chain_disruption | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

security_risk | 107 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_infrastructure_partnership | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

new_entrant_speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_strategy_validation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

demand_supply_imbalance | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

misrepresentation_allegation | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

institutional_selling | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_entry_threat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_position_update | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

sp500_inclusion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

devtool_trust | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ip_lawsuit | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

hbm_supply_shift | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

grant_award | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

restructuring | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

government_grant_award | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ecosystem_expansion | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

gpu_budget_controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ipo_filing | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

technology_investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

fundraising_round | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

quantum_foundry_announcement | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

geopolitical_escalation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

regulatory_change | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

trust_speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

corporate_ai_pullback | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

pricing_change | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

trust_allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

nasdaq_100_addition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

talent_movement | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

m_and_a | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_leadership_claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

short_seller_activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_memory_demand_outlook | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_strategy_change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

efficiency_claim_controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

operations_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

new_model_launch | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

custom_chip_probability_increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_budget_controversy | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_innovation_gap_opinion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

demand_signal | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

labor_settlement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

profitability_deterioration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

funding_round | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_budget_discrepancy_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_custom_silicon_indication | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_cap_milestone | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

inference_optimization_tool | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

customer_adoption_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

government_funding_award | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_position_signal | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

call_option_volume_surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_position_announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

photonics_investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

bullish_options_activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

demand_outlook_positive | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

partnership_anticipation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

funding_valuation_event | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_dethronement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitor_market_sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

reputation_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

valuation_perception_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

optical_supply_chain_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

valuation_surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

monopoly_threat_sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

credibility_concern | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_position_sentiment | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

prediction_market_signal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

custom_chip_intention | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

hyperscaler_internal_chip | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

reputational_risk | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

mega_funding_round | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_wearable_development | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_pricing_pressure | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

custom_chip_development | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

partnership_speculation | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_budget_misrepresentation | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

notable_investor_activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

reputation_risk | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

speculative_partnership_indicator | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_sentiment_shift | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

node_competitiveness_doubt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

sovereign_ai_announcement | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

hbm_roadmap_update | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_sentiment_decline | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_budget_discrepancy | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

revenue_milestone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

foundry_customer_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

gpu_usage_credibility | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_share_leadership_claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_startup_funding | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_budget_claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

product_rumor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

regional_compute_buildout | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_model_launch_delay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_platform_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

major_shareholder_guidance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

claim_credibility_doubt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

regulatory_risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capacity_investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

megafab_announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capex_change_hyperscaler | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_model_api_delay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

industrial_ai_adoption | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_positioning | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_partnership_speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

product_delay | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

partnership_direction | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

social_media_ban | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capex_increase_ecosystem | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

packaging_capacity_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

alleged_compute_misrepresentation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

custom_ai_chip_development | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

index_inclusion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_probability_change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

index_addition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

monopoly_uncertainty_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_claim_dispute | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

chatgpt_superapp_overhaul | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_share_claim | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ecosystem_growth_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_standing_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_chip_sell_off | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

euv_output_capacity_upgrade | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

funding_round_valuation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

custom_ai_chip_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_sentiment_signal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

product_launch_delay_regulatory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

product_launch_delay | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

euv_monopoly_confirmation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

transparency_concern | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_infrastructure_financing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

chip_manufacturing_order | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_positioning_change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

gpu_lead_time_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

antitrust_action | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capacity_expansion | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

gpu_usage_reporting_accuracy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

customer_churn_signal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

platform_update | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

new_revenue_stream | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_edge_hardware | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capex_change_neocloud | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

manufacturing_capacity_investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

institutional_position_increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

credit_facility_update | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

osat_capacity_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

power_ppa | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

award_win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_moat_confidence | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

euv_monopoly_outlook | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_threat_perception | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

valuation_increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capex_change | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

demand_surge | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

on_device_ai_challenge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

customer_commitment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

demand_indicator | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

governance_risk_escalation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitor_confidence_decline | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_policy_competition | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

china_demand_softening | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

platform_outage | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

cxl_specification_release | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

technology_milestone_miss | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_sentiment_event | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

sector_sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_pressure | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capital_markets_activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

automotive_memory_demand_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

neocloud_funding | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

regulatory_probe | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ecosystem_confidence_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_usage_integrity_question | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_capability_gap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

nuclear_regulatory_clearance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_claim_discrepancy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

cuda_kernel_optimization | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capital_raise | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

government_contract_loss | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

short_report_published | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_share_loss | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

misrepresentation_claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

technology_node_gap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_sentiment_change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

agentic_ai_cpu_demand_increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

funding_mega_round | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

customer_order_win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

government_backing_for_data_center_power | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

supply_chain_disclosure_concern | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

model_competitive_outlook | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_share_sentiment_prediction | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

prediction_market_sentiment | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_agent_regulatory_shutdown | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ipo_filing_and_regulatory_engagement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_budget_credibility | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

corporate_bond_issuance | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ipo_announcement | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

sovereign_data_center_risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

product_demand_surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

corporate_debt_issuance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_market_size_prediction | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_disruption | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

physical_ai_acceleration | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

platform_adoption_growth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

developer_adoption_spike | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

model_release_delay | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

equity_offering_oversubscribed | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_capacity_deal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ipo_timeline_acceleration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_threat | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_buildout_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_infrastructure_demand_boost | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_weakness_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_budget_discrepancy_allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

cloud_compute_deal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

memory_capacity_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

trust_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

infrastructure_financing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

equity_offering_consideration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_talent_hiring_surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

technology_gap_widening | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

trust_risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

trust_concern | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_intensification | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

starship_test_flight_setback | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_position_change | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

stock_split | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capital_injection | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

legal_risk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

euv_technology_competition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

gpu_compute_allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

power_architecture_promotion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

architecture_market_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

monopoly_position_update | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_share_signal | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

earnings_sell_off | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_moat_threat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_inference_workload_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_cost_discrepancy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ecosystem_moat_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_claim_controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

training_cost_integrity_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

technology_development_risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

labor_disruption_threat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

euv_tool_order_surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

valuation_target_increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

monopoly_probability_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

internal_chip_development_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_efficiency_controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_sentiment | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

asic_capacity_unlock | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

production_capacity_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

gpu_compute_disclosure_controversy | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_chip_probability_increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

technology_gap_sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_funding | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

cuda_ecosystem_momentum | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

trust_controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_chip_investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

disclosure_controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

supply_chain_investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_adoption_slowdown_forecast | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capex_increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

prediction_market_probability | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

technology_leadership_change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

prediction_market_odds | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

product_economics_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

prediction_market_indicator | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

geopolitical_risk_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_entry | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

facility_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

server_manufacturing_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

low_cost_pc_push | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

product_timeline_risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

euv_monopoly_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_product_sample | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

server_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

venture_capital_investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

legal_setback | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_budget_disclosure_controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

data_center_buildout | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_investment_sentiment_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

developer_ecosystem_sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_capacity_constraint | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_leadership_claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

manufacturing_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

fundraising_event | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

regulatory_clearance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

grid_constraint | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_position_erosion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

portfolio_company_ipo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

open_source_ai_optimization | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

foundry_strategy_setback | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

revenue_acceleration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

share_rout | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_chip_development_speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

test_subsystem_market_share_claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

hyperscaler_capacity_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

investment_ipo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

inference_cost_reduction | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

prediction_market_sentiment_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

credit_downgrade_and_project_hurdle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

customer_event | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

advanced_packaging_competition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_threat_assessment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

partnership_risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

data_center_tenant_risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_dynamics | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitor_threat_dismissed | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

legal_settlement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

infrastructure_software_development | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

cloud_ai_spending | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_inference_demand_uptick | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_implied_dominance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_hiring_surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_cap_trajectory_indicator | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

packaging_supply_chain_development | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

workforce_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

quantum_investment_plan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

technology_gap_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

export_restriction_risk_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_threat_debunked | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

technology_gap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

water_constraint | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

agentic_ai_cpu_demand | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

institutional_ownership_change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

government_stake_discussion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_position_deterioration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

debt_financing_risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

prediction_market_bullish | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

bullish_sentiment_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_capacity_constraint | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitor_shipment_doubt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_position_market_sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

monopoly_risk_update | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_moat_reinforced | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ipo_filing_preparations | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

product_launch_risk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

memory_supply_diversification | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

enterprise_cloud_migration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

security_vulnerability_cluster | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

lithography_alternative_emergence | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_position | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

design_loss | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

neocloud_market_growth_forecast | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

equity_offering | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capacity_demand_surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

custom_chip_partnership | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

listing_announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_packaging_demand_outlook | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capex_increase_semiconductor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

government_takedown_request | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_momentum | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_capex_increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

euv_monopoly_reaffirmed | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

berkshire_investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

software_optimization_release | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_cap_expectation_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_outlook_change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

shipment_delay_risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

valuation_consensus_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

terafab_advancement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

geopolitical_data_center_risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capacity_constraint_hyperscaler | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_inference_cost_inversion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

portfolio_rotation_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

cloud_capacity_squeeze | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

chinese_ai_model_competition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

hbm_demand_concern | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

data_center_construction_blockage | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_cap_sentiment_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

compute_demand_increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

hyperscaler_ai_model_availability | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ipo_filing_rumor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

space_based_ai_infrastructure_plan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

fundraising_valuation_surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_ecosystem_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

developer_ecosystem_moat_sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

memory_cost_impact_on_apple | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

valuation_expansion_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

monopoly_status_confirmation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

product_delay_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

validation_differentiation_trend | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_position_claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_position_weakness | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

memory_supply_source_change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_and_talent_risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

monopoly_probability_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_technology_gap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_share_gain | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

valuation_sentiment_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_share_change | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

talent_risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capacity_expansion_plan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

euv_monopoly_persistence | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

custom_silicon_demand_increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

technological_catch_up_doubt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_assistant_test | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

modular_data_center_trademark | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

data_center_attack | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

device_financing_program_launch | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ipo_capital_raise | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

product_shipment_risk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

developer_ecosystem_expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

tariff_mitigation_move | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

product_launch_ramp | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

demand_weakness_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

customer_win_and_capital_raise | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

production_ramp | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

rumor_denial | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

software_compatibility_issue | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

security_incentive_change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

semicap_revenue_decline | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

custom_ai_chip_design | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

monopoly_position_reaffirmed | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ipo_listing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

risc_v_adoption_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

monopoly_assessment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

monopoly_sentiment_update | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

process_technology_breakthrough | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

memory_capex_increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

market_cap_sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

technological_capability_signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

process_node_innovation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

revenue_reacceleration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

gpu_quality_concern | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

government_intervention_foundry | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capital_equipment_demand_increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

eda_competitive_threat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

competitive_threat_lithography | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

hiring_spree | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

cloud_ai_competitive_pressure | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

custom_chip_design_plan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

revenue_growth_acceleration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ai_hardware_roadmap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

monopoly_durability | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

subsidiary_ipo_announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

semiconductor_fab_investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

foundation_model_leader_rating | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

## Backfill calibration

historical replay

33%

hit-rate

8

hit

16

miss

1

push

Use this to spot weak signal types and scoring bias, not to claim accuracy.

type | n | hit | miss | push | hit-rate |

partnership | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

analyst_revision | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% |

restructuring | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |

earnings_surprise | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33% |

export_restriction | 10 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 33% |

guidance_change | 20 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 20% |

gpu_lead_time_shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

foundry_capacity_announcement | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

regulatory_change | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capex_change_neocloud | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

capex_change_hyperscaler | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

hbm_supply_shift | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

data_center_announcement | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

insider_transaction_cluster | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |

new_product_launch | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

antitrust_action | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

design_win | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

ip_lawsuit | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

talent_movement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |

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