Prediction market data from Manifold Markets shows overwhelming consensus that Anthropic will surpass OpenAI by 2027...
Prediction market data from Manifold Markets shows overwhelming consensus that Anthropic will surpass OpenAI by 2027 and in valuation by 2026.
signal brief
Prediction market data from Manifold Markets shows overwhelming consensus that Anthropic will surpass OpenAI by 2027 and in valuation by 2026. Specifically, as of May 28, 2026, manifold.markets/SG shows 94.54% probability that Anthropic flips OpenAI before 2028, and manifold.markets/sama shows 96.00% probability that Anthropic surpasses OpenAI valuation in 2026. Additionally, manifold.markets/duck_master indicates 93.83% chance of a flip before 2027. These are based on multiple independent markets, all pointing to strong belief in Anthropic's ascendance. However, this is purely speculative market sentiment, not confirmed by company announcements or financial results. The collection focuses on AI-infra/semiconductor signals; a competitive shift at Anthropic could affect demand for compute infrastructure and chips. Given the single category of sources (prediction markets), confidence is low.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/SG/anthropic-flips-openai-before-2028web
- https://manifold.markets/sama/will-anthropic-surpass-openai-valuaweb
- https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/1-anthropic-will-go-public-openai-wweb
- https://manifold.markets/duck_master/anthropic-flips-openai-before-2027web
- https://manifold.markets/JeromeHPowell/will-manifold-consider-the-next-claweb
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.