signal type · other
competitive position sentiment
Every published competitive position sentiment signal with its public hit-rate inline. Belongs to the other family, which means fresh competitive position sentiment calls borrow confidence from sibling types in the family until they earn their own sample.
all-time signals
4
published only
direct hit-rate
—
no scored predictions yet
family hit-rate
40%
15 across other
family
other
see signal-families.ts for mapping
definition
What is a competitive position sentiment signal?
A competitive position sentiment signal is any High-Signal-published call tagged competitive_position_sentiment by the ingest pipeline. The exact extraction rules live in python/ingest and the family rollup in /methodology. Every published instance carries ≥ 2 independent sources per the cite-or-kill rule.
every published competitive position sentiment signal
2026-05-30 · CERE · down · low
A prediction market question on Manifold titled 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?' shows only 3.71%...
2026-05-29 · CERE · down · low
A Manifold Markets prediction market as of 2026-05-29 shows only 3.71% probability that Cerebras will be a serious...
2026-05-28 · SMIC · down · low
Two prediction market questions on Manifold Markets assess SMIC's ability to manufacture semiconductors that outcompete...
2026-05-26 · CUDA · up · low
A Manifold prediction market poses the question: 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?' As of the...