signal type · other
compute budget misrepresentation
Every published compute budget misrepresentation signal with its public hit-rate inline. Belongs to the other family, which means fresh compute budget misrepresentation calls borrow confidence from sibling types in the family until they earn their own sample.
all-time signals
2
published only
direct hit-rate
—
no scored predictions yet
family hit-rate
40%
15 across other
family
other
see signal-families.ts for mapping
definition
What is a compute budget misrepresentation signal?
A compute budget misrepresentation signal is any High-Signal-published call tagged compute_budget_misrepresentation by the ingest pipeline. The exact extraction rules live in python/ingest and the family rollup in /methodology. Every published instance carries ≥ 2 independent sources per the cite-or-kill rule.
every published compute budget misrepresentation signal
2026-06-02 · DEEPSEEK · neutral · low
A Manifold prediction market (as of 2026-06-02) asks whether DeepSeek lied about the GPU compute budget used to train...
2026-06-01 · DEEPSEEK · neutral · low
A prediction market on Manifold ( as of June 1, 2026, indicates only a 4.01% probability that DeepSeek lied about the...