signal type · other
prediction market probability
Every published prediction market probability signal with its public hit-rate inline. Belongs to the other family, which means fresh prediction market probability calls borrow confidence from sibling types in the family until they earn their own sample.
all-time signals
2
published only
direct hit-rate
—
no scored predictions yet
family hit-rate
40%
15 across other
family
other
see signal-families.ts for mapping
definition
What is a prediction market probability signal?
A prediction market probability signal is any High-Signal-published call tagged prediction_market_probability by the ingest pipeline. The exact extraction rules live in python/ingest and the family rollup in /methodology. Every published instance carries ≥ 2 independent sources per the cite-or-kill rule.
every published prediction market probability signal
2026-05-29 · CUDA · neutral · low
A prediction market on Manifold Markets currently estimates a 56.95% probability that CUDA will remain a monopoly for...
2026-05-28 · INTC · neutral · low
Two prediction market probabilities on Manifold Markets as of May 28, 2026, indicate mixed expectations for Intel's...