A prediction market on Manifold Markets ( now shows a 77% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in...

A prediction market on Manifold Markets (https://manifold.markets/irilonto/will-apple-release-an-ai-chip-for-i) now shows a 77% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026. This is a significant increase from earlier levels, indicating growing belief in Apple's internal AI silicon development. While the source is a speculative market and not an official announcement, the shift suggests a potential design win for Apple's chip team and a new wafer start demand for TSMC, likely the manufacturer. The move would reduce Apple's reliance on external AI accelerators and could pressure competitors like Qualcomm. Given the single-source, low-confidence nature, the signal is considered low confidence. However, if realized, the impact on the semiconductor supply chain could be material within 60 days as development and tape-out plans solidify.