Multiple Manifold Markets prediction bets indicate weakening competitive position for Anthropic relative to OpenAI.

Multiple Manifold Markets prediction bets indicate weakening competitive position for Anthropic relative to OpenAI. As of June 7, 2026, the market assigns a 71.29% probability that OpenAI will overtake Anthropic in valuation before 2028 (source). Additionally, OpenAI leads 5.2 to 4.5 in version numbers, with 96.66% confidence that this lead persists through mid-2026 (source). The @anthropic-ai/sdk npm package has only a 5% chance of surpassing OpenAI's package in weekly downloads (source). Finally, only 2.4% believe the next Claude Opus model will be considered AGI (source). These collective signals suggest market skepticism about Anthropic's momentum and developer adoption, pointing to a negative trajectory for the company.