Prediction market data from Manifold Markets indicates weak expectations for Anthropic's upcoming models relative to...
Prediction market data from Manifold Markets indicates weak expectations for Anthropic's upcoming models relative to OpenAI. As of June 17, 2026, the market assigns a 96.66% probability that OpenAI maintains its version lead (5.2 vs 4.5) through mid-2026 (source). Additionally, only 24.52% expect Claude Fable 5 to score well on ARC-AGI-3 (source), and a mere 2.40% believe the next Claude Opus model will be considered AGI (source). Furthermore, DeepSeek V4 is given only 1.60% chance to outperform both OpenAI and Anthropic at coding (source), suggesting Anthropic is not even the primary rival. These probabilities collectively signal a bearish outlook on Anthropic's near-term model competitiveness.
signal brief
Prediction market data from Manifold Markets indicates weak expectations for Anthropic's upcoming models relative to OpenAI. As of June 17, 2026, the market assigns a 96.66% probability that OpenAI maintains its version lead (5.2 vs 4.5) through mid-2026 (source). Additionally, only 24.52% expect Claude Fable 5 to score well on ARC-AGI-3 (source), and a mere 2.40% believe the next Claude Opus model will be considered AGI (source). Furthermore, DeepSeek V4 is given only 1.60% chance to outperform both OpenAI and Anthropic at coding (source), suggesting Anthropic is not even the primary rival. These probabilities collectively signal a bearish outlook on Anthropic's near-term model competitiveness.
evidence
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.