Multiple prediction market outcomes on Manifold Markets indicate strong consensus that ASML will retain its monopoly in...
Multiple prediction market outcomes on Manifold Markets indicate strong consensus that ASML will retain its monopoly in EUV lithography. As of May 26, 2026, the market assigns 81.77% probability that ASML remains the sole EUV producer through end of 2026 (source) and 69.43% through end of 2027 (source). The likelihood of ASML's monopoly by end of 2024 is 96.17% (source). Separately, the chance that ASML sold any EUV machine to China in 2023 is only 6.28% (source), reinforcing the efficacy of export controls. These aggregated forecasts suggest no near-term disruption to ASML's competitive moat or to supply-chain dynamics for advanced chips.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple prediction market outcomes on Manifold Markets indicate strong consensus that ASML will retain its monopoly in EUV lithography. As of May 26, 2026, the market assigns 81.77% probability that ASML remains the sole EUV producer through end of 2026 (source) and 69.43% through end of 2027 (source). The likelihood of ASML's monopoly by end of 2024 is 96.17% (source). Separately, the chance that ASML sold any EUV machine to China in 2023 is only 6.28% (source), reinforcing the efficacy of export controls. These aggregated forecasts suggest no near-term disruption to ASML's competitive moat or to supply-chain dynamics for advanced chips.
evidence
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.