ASML Holding NV
spillover graph 6
market consensus 10prediction-market quotes (latest)
- 82%Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?manifold$12.9K
- 84%Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?manifold$1.1K
- 69%Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?manifold$561
- 11%Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?manifold$223
- 56%Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?manifold$250
- 96%Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?manifold$1.5Kresolved YES
- 6%Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?manifold$596resolved NO
- 1%Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?manifold$1.5Kresolved NO
- 82%Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?manifold$12.9K
- 84%Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?manifold$1.1K
recent signals
Nikon's new CEO Yasuhiro Ohmura announced plans to undercut ASML on price for ArF immersion (DUV) tools, targeting...
Nikon's new CEO Yasuhiro Ohmura announced plans to undercut ASML on price for ArF immersion (DUV) tools, targeting large US and Asian chipmakers.
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate strong consensus that ASML will maintain its monopoly...
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate strong consensus that ASML will maintain its monopoly in EUV lithography.
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate a strong consensus that ASML will remain the world's...
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate a strong consensus that ASML will remain the world's sole producer of EUV lithography machines through at least 2026, and likely through 2027.
On May 28, 2026, Nikkei Asia reported that Nikon's CEO announced the company plans to challenge ASML with low-priced...
On May 28, 2026, Nikkei Asia reported that Nikon's CEO announced the company plans to challenge ASML with low-priced chipmaking equipment (source).
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets indicate that ASML is expected to remain the sole producer of EUV...
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets indicate that ASML is expected to remain the sole producer of EUV lithography machines well into the future.
Multiple prediction market outcomes on Manifold Markets indicate strong consensus that ASML will retain its monopoly in...
Multiple prediction market outcomes on Manifold Markets indicate strong consensus that ASML will retain its monopoly in EUV lithography.
ASML is expanding its hiring and operations in Taiwan to meet demand for advanced chips, according to a Digitimes...
ASML is expanding its hiring and operations in Taiwan to meet demand for advanced chips, according to a Digitimes report.
Prediction market data from Manifold Markets as of 2026-05-25 indicates strong consensus that ASML will remain the sole...
Prediction market data from Manifold Markets as of 2026-05-25 indicates strong consensus that ASML will remain the sole producer of EUV lithography machines through at least 2026 (81.77% probability) and 2027 (69.43%).
Prediction market data from Manifold Markets as of May 25, 2026, indicates strong consensus that ASML will remain the...
Prediction market data from Manifold Markets as of May 25, 2026, indicates strong consensus that ASML will remain the sole producer of EUV lithography machines.
Source data from Manifold Markets indicates high consensus probabilities that ASML will remain the world's only...
Source data from Manifold Markets indicates high consensus probabilities that ASML will remain the world's only producer of EUV lithography machines.
As of May 24, 2026, prediction markets on Manifold reflect strong consensus that ASML will retain its exclusive...
As of May 24, 2026, prediction markets on Manifold reflect strong consensus that ASML will retain its exclusive position in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography.
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets, all resolved on 2026-05-23, indicate high confidence that...
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets, all resolved on 2026-05-23, indicate high confidence that ASML will remain the sole producer of EUV lithography machines through at least 2026 and likely 2027.
Four prediction market questions on Manifold Markets (as of 2026-05-22) indicate strong consensus that ASML will remain...
Four prediction market questions on Manifold Markets (as of 2026-05-22) indicate strong consensus that ASML will remain the sole EUV lithography machine producer through at least 2026 (81.77% probability) and through 2027 (69.43%).
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet confirmed direct talks with Elon Musk about the TeraFab chipmaking megaproject in Texas,...
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet confirmed direct talks with Elon Musk about the TeraFab chipmaking megaproject in Texas, with Musk targeting a $119 billion facility that would require billions in ASML equipment (source: Tom's Hardware).
Prediction market data from Manifold Markets indicates a high probability that ASML will retain its monopoly in extreme...
Prediction market data from Manifold Markets indicates a high probability that ASML will retain its monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines.
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet confirmed direct talks with Elon Musk about the $119 billion TeraFab megaproject in Texas,...
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet confirmed direct talks with Elon Musk about the $119 billion TeraFab megaproject in Texas, signaling a potential massive equipment order pipeline for ASML (Source 1).
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet confirmed direct talks with Elon Musk about the TeraFab semiconductor megaproject in Texas,...
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet confirmed direct talks with Elon Musk about the TeraFab semiconductor megaproject in Texas, describing Musk as 'very serious' about the $119 billion facility (Source 1).
Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?
Fallback draft generated from 4 source(s) because normal LLM generation did not return a publishable candidate.
ASML announced a restructuring involving cuts to management layers, signaling internal cost control or efficiency...
ASML announced a restructuring involving cuts to management layers, signaling internal cost control or efficiency measures that may reflect challenges or strategic shifts within the company.
ASML has reported strong Q1 sales of €8.8 billion and raised its full-year 2026 sales outlook, driven by robust demand...
ASML has reported strong Q1 sales of €8.8 billion and raised its full-year 2026 sales outlook, driven by robust demand for chip manufacturing tools fueled by the AI boom, as detailed in their recent AGM finance.yahoo.com, 2026-04-24 and confirmed by their Q1 sales report...