ASML Holding NV
spillover graph 6
market consensus 10prediction-market quotes (latest)
- 16%Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)manifold$3.0K
- 80%Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?manifold$12.9K
- 84%Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?manifold$1.1K
- 43%Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?manifold$15
- 69%Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?manifold$561
- 11%Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?manifold$223
- 56%Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?manifold$250
- 50%Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?manifold$116
- 96%Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?manifold$1.5Kresolved YES
- 6%Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?manifold$596resolved NO
recent signals
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets as of June 19, 2026, indicate strong confidence in ASML maintaining its...
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets as of June 19, 2026, indicate strong confidence in ASML maintaining its dominant position in EUV lithography and achieving sustained revenue growth.
ASML raised its full-year 2026 net sales forecast from €36B-€40B to €43B-€45B and reported Q2 net sales of €9.3B (beat...
ASML raised its full-year 2026 net sales forecast from €36B-€40B to €43B-€45B and reported Q2 net sales of €9.3B (beat €8.8B est.) and net profit of €2.9B (beat €2.6B est.) CNBC.
A Manifold prediction market as of July 14, 2026 indicates a 43.06% probability that the United States will cut ASML...
A Manifold prediction market as of July 14, 2026 indicates a 43.06% probability that the United States will cut ASML off from Cymer, a critical supplier of light sources for EUV lithography machines, before 2030 (source: Manifold).
ASML is set to report Q2 2026 earnings on July 15, and a bullish article on Motley Fool argues the stock could soar if...
ASML is set to report Q2 2026 earnings on July 15, and a bullish article on Motley Fool argues the stock could soar if results meet elevated expectations driven by AI demand.
A set of prediction market probabilities on Manifold Markets, all dated July 12, 2026, reveals growing expectations...
A set of prediction market probabilities on Manifold Markets, all dated July 12, 2026, reveals growing expectations that China may develop a domestic EUV lithography machine by 2030, posing a long-term threat to ASML's monopoly.
As of June 19, 2026, prediction markets on Manifold indicate strong confidence in ASML's continued dominance in EUV...
As of June 19, 2026, prediction markets on Manifold indicate strong confidence in ASML's continued dominance in EUV lithography and sustained revenue growth.
Multiple Manifold Markets predictions as of July 10, 2026 indicate strong consensus that ASML will maintain its...
Multiple Manifold Markets predictions as of July 10, 2026 indicate strong consensus that ASML will maintain its exclusive position in EUV lithography.
ASML has been identified as a key partner in a new initiative to bring 2D chip mass production to Taiwan within five...
ASML has been identified as a key partner in a new initiative to bring 2D chip mass production to Taiwan within five years.
Prediction markets from Manifold indicate that ASML is expected to remain the sole producer of EUV machines through...
Prediction markets from Manifold indicate that ASML is expected to remain the sole producer of EUV machines through 2026-2027 (sources 2,5 with 80% and 69% probability).
Multiple Manifold prediction market questions as of July 2026 indicate sustained confidence in ASML's EUV lithography...
Multiple Manifold prediction market questions as of July 2026 indicate sustained confidence in ASML's EUV lithography monopoly and limited China access.
A detailed TechTechPotato analysis on July 1, 2026, systematically debunks the claims of stealth startup Substrate,...
A detailed TechTechPotato analysis on July 1, 2026, systematically debunks the claims of stealth startup Substrate, which purported to develop an X-ray lithography platform that could rival ASML's EUV monopoly.
Multiple Manifold prediction market questions on ASML's EUV lithography monopoly and China's access show strong...
Multiple Manifold prediction market questions on ASML's EUV lithography monopoly and China's access show strong consensus that ASML remains the sole EUV producer through 2026 (79.92%) and that China has not acquired an EUV machine (only 16.70% chance as of June 2026).
A comprehensive technical analysis by semiconductor analyst Ian Cutress (TechTechPotato) Source 1 systematically...
A comprehensive technical analysis by semiconductor analyst Ian Cutress (TechTechPotato) Source 1 systematically deconstructs the claims of stealth startup Substrate, which had been hyped as a potential disruptor to ASML's EUV lithography monopoly.
A detailed technical analysis by TechTechPotato (Dr.
A detailed technical analysis by TechTechPotato (Dr.
As of July 4, 2026, Manifold Markets consensus on multiple questions reveals significant geopolitical risk for ASML.
As of July 4, 2026, Manifold Markets consensus on multiple questions reveals significant geopolitical risk for ASML.
A detailed analysis by TechTechPotato (Dr. Ian Cutress) thoroughly examines and refutes the claims made by Substrate, a...
A detailed analysis by TechTechPotato (Dr. Ian Cutress) thoroughly examines and refutes the claims made by Substrate, a stealth startup backed by Peter Thiel, that its X-ray lithography platform could disrupt ASML's monopoly in sub-2nm chip manufacturing. The video walks through...
Multiple prediction market outcomes on Manifold Markets as of July 4, 2026, indicate elevated risk of future US export...
Multiple prediction market outcomes on Manifold Markets as of July 4, 2026, indicate elevated risk of future US export restrictions on ASML.
As of July 3, 2026, multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets indicate a heightened probability of further US...
As of July 3, 2026, multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets indicate a heightened probability of further US export restrictions against ASML.
A detailed technical analysis by TechTechPotato (Ian Cutress) thoroughly debunks the claims of stealth startup...
A detailed technical analysis by TechTechPotato (Ian Cutress) thoroughly debunks the claims of stealth startup Substrate, which had been hyped as a potential disruptor to ASML's EUV lithography monopoly.
A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 50% probability that the US will force ASML to halt exports to...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 50% probability that the US will force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (Source 1).