According to Manifold Markets consensus as of May 31, 2026, the probability that Tesla announces a formal partnership...

According to Manifold Markets consensus as of May 31, 2026, the probability that Tesla announces a formal partnership with Intel for AI chip fabrication by June 30, 2026 stands at 96.54% source 2. This high probability suggests strong market belief in a near-term agreement, which would be a significant win for Intel's foundry business. Other related predictions include a 27% chance Intel manufactures Nvidia chips by end of 2026 source 1, a 48.73% chance of a TSMC-Intel joint venture foundry source 3, and only 14% chance Intel's lithography catches up to TSMC by 2028 source 4. While none of these are confirmed, the Tesla partnership indicator is remarkably high and could signal an imminent announcement. If realized, it would boost Intel's foundry credibility and potentially shift share from TSMC and Samsung. The prediction window aligns with the June 30 deadline, making this a near-term catalyst.