Two prediction market events on Manifold Markets suggest growing confidence in Intel's foundry prospects.

Two prediction market events on Manifold Markets suggest growing confidence in Intel's foundry prospects. As of May 28, 2026, the market assigns a 96.54% probability that Tesla will announce a formal Intel partnership for AI chip fabrication by June 30, 2026 (source). Additionally, the market shows a 27% probability that Intel will manufacture NVIDIA chips by end of 2026 (source). While prediction markets are speculative, the high probability for the Tesla deal indicates strong market belief in an imminent partnership, which would validate Intel's foundry turnaround and AI ambitions. A win with NVIDIA would further solidify Intel's position as a credible alternative to TSMC. Both events point to upward momentum for Intel's foundry business, though the signals are probabilistic and not confirmed. Spillover effects would impact NVIDIA (potential capacity shift) and TSMC (competitive pressure).