Prediction markets indicate a near-certain probability (96.54%) that Tesla will announce a formal partnership with...

Prediction markets indicate a near-certain probability (96.54%) that Tesla will announce a formal partnership with Intel for AI chip fabrication by June 30, 2026 (Source 2). This would mark a major foundry win for Intel, bolstering its foundry business and AI chip ambitions. In contrast, the probability of Intel manufacturing NVIDIA chips by end of 2026 is only 27% (Source 1), and a joint venture between TSMC and Intel sits at 48.73% (Source 3). Intel's lithography catch-up with TSMC by 2028 is considered unlikely at 14.03% (Source 4). If the Tesla partnership materializes, Intel gains a high-profile AI customer, potentially shifting AI chip production from TSMC and affecting NVIDIA's supply chain. However, these are prediction market probabilities, not confirmed events; hence low confidence. The window is set to 30 days until the deadline.