According to a Manifold Markets prediction, the consensus probability that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom...

According to a Manifold Markets prediction, the consensus probability that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030 is 93%. This high probability suggests the market expects OpenAI to pursue vertical integration in hardware, reducing reliance on external GPU suppliers like NVIDIA. While not a confirmed corporate announcement, the consensus reflects strong belief among traders. If realized, this could shift demand dynamics in the AI semiconductor market, potentially impacting NVIDIA's dominance in training chips. However, the timeline of 2030 is distant, and the near-term signal is weak. Other prediction markets show high probability (91.82%) of a GPT-5-level model announcement before July 2026 (source), and a 65.85% chance of IPO with >$1T valuation (source), but these are less directly relevant to semiconductor infrastructure.