OpenAI Inc.
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market consensus 10prediction-market quotes (latest)
- 25%Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?manifold$885
- 93%Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?manifold$5.5K
- 99%Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?manifold$16.1K
- 65%Will OpenAI ship a hardware device in 2026?manifold$1.6K
- 13%OpenAI IPO before 2027?manifold$39.1K
- 60%Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?manifold$3.6K
- 90%OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?manifold$6.9K
- 92%Will OpenAI be valued more than a trillion dollar at anytime before 2034?manifold$5.3K
- 26%OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027manifold$22.7K
- 18%[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?manifold$50.1K
recent signals
Prediction market data from Manifold Markets shows a 93.15% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom...
Prediction market data from Manifold Markets shows a 93.15% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030 (source 2).
Evidence: A Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 93.15% chance that OpenAI will design and manufacture a...
Evidence: A Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 93.15% chance that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030.
A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 93.15% probability that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 93.15% probability that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030 (source).
Apple has filed a lawsuit against OpenAI alleging theft of trade secrets related to its future AI hardware devices.
Apple has filed a lawsuit against OpenAI alleging theft of trade secrets related to its future AI hardware devices.
OpenAI posted a job opening for a Hardware Product Manager focused on Consumer Commerce (source: OpenAI hiring page).
OpenAI posted a job opening for a Hardware Product Manager focused on Consumer Commerce (source: OpenAI hiring page).
A prediction market on Manifold Markets (source) indicates a 93.15% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets (source) indicates a 93.15% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030.
Apple has filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, accusing the company and two former Apple employees of stealing trade secrets...
Apple has filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, accusing the company and two former Apple employees of stealing trade secrets to build OpenAI's hardware division.
Prediction market Manifold Markets currently shows a 93.15% probability that OpenAI will design and manufacture a...
Prediction market Manifold Markets currently shows a 93.15% probability that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030 (source: This indicates strong market belief in OpenAI's vertical integration into chip design, potentially reducing reliance on suppliers...
Prediction market data from Manifold Markets shows a 93.15% consensus probability that OpenAI will design and...
Prediction market data from Manifold Markets shows a 93.15% consensus probability that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030 (Source 3: This high probability suggests strong market belief in OpenAI's vertical integration into chip design, potentially...
OpenAI faces a confluence of negative events in July 2026.
OpenAI faces a confluence of negative events in July 2026.
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets show a strong consensus (93.15%) that OpenAI will design and...
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets show a strong consensus (93.15%) that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030.
Prediction markets on Manifold suggest a high probability (93.15%) that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI...
Prediction markets on Manifold suggest a high probability (93.15%) that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030, indicating strong market belief in vertical integration for AI hardware (source).
A prediction market on Manifold ( indicates a 93.15% probability that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI...
A prediction market on Manifold ( indicates a 93.15% probability that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030.
OpenAI secured U.S. regulatory clearance to broadly release its GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna models, after initial...
OpenAI secured U.S. regulatory clearance to broadly release its GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna models, after initial government restrictions limited access to a small group of trusted partners.
Prediction markets show strong consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030, with...
Prediction markets show strong consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030, with probability at 93.15% (Source 2: Simultaneously, the market assigns only 24.71% probability to OpenAI publicly sharing software to run AI on chips from different...
Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026
Fallback draft generated from 5 source(s) because normal LLM generation did not return a publishable candidate.
OpenAI announced that GPT-5.6 Sol, along with Terra and Luna, will launch publicly on Thursday after the US Department...
OpenAI announced that GPT-5.6 Sol, along with Terra and Luna, will launch publicly on Thursday after the US Department of Commerce cleared a broad rollout.
A prediction market on Manifold Markets shows a 93.15% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets shows a 93.15% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030.
OpenAI has reportedly partnered with Broadcom to develop a custom AI chip, as per a Motley Fool article citing...
OpenAI has reportedly partnered with Broadcom to develop a custom AI chip, as per a Motley Fool article citing Broadcom's unveiling.
A Manifold Markets prediction market shows a 93.15% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip...
A Manifold Markets prediction market shows a 93.15% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030 (source).