OpenAI Inc.
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market consensus 10prediction-market quotes (latest)
- 93%Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?manifold$5.5K
- 55%OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027manifold$3.5K
- 2%Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?manifold$16.6K
- 13%Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026?manifold$907
- 2%OpenAI announces an interactive world model by June 1st 2026?manifold$1.7K
- 3%OpenAI releases a creative writing model by June 1st 2026?manifold$769
- 23%First OpenAI + io hardware product wearable?manifold$601
- 45%Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?manifold$1.4K
- 8%OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?manifold$5.2K
- 1%Will Elon Musk and OpenAI announce a settlement in their federal lawsuit before July 1, 2026?manifold$1.1K
recent signals
OpenAI appears to be clearing the decks for a major new model launch.
OpenAI appears to be clearing the decks for a major new model launch.
A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 93% probability that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 93% probability that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030.
Prediction market Manifold Markets shows high probability for two key OpenAI milestones.
Prediction market Manifold Markets shows high probability for two key OpenAI milestones.
As of May 30, 2026, a prediction market on Manifold Markets (source: indicates a 93% consensus that OpenAI will design...
As of May 30, 2026, a prediction market on Manifold Markets (source: indicates a 93% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030.
On May 29, 2026, Bloomberg reported that OpenAI has discussed adding Citigroup and JPMorgan to its bank lineup for an...
On May 29, 2026, Bloomberg reported that OpenAI has discussed adding Citigroup and JPMorgan to its bank lineup for an initial public offering.
According to a prediction market on Manifold Markets, there is a 93% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture...
According to a prediction market on Manifold Markets, there is a 93% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030 (Source).
A prediction market on Manifold Markets shows a 93% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets shows a 93% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030 (source).
On May 29, 2026, multiple news outlets reported that Anthropic surpassed OpenAI in valuation, reaching approximately...
On May 29, 2026, multiple news outlets reported that Anthropic surpassed OpenAI in valuation, reaching approximately $965 billion after a $65 billion funding round, while Claude demand surges and new models like Opus 4.8 launch.
A Manifold Markets prediction market shows 93% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by...
A Manifold Markets prediction market shows 93% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030 (source).
A prediction market on Manifold Markets shows a 93% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets shows a 93% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030 (source).
On 2026-05-27, a Digitimes article (source: reported that OpenAI is targeting smaller advertisers to make ChatGPT...
On 2026-05-27, a Digitimes article (source: reported that OpenAI is targeting smaller advertisers to make ChatGPT advertising profitable.
According to a Manifold Markets prediction, the consensus probability that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom...
According to a Manifold Markets prediction, the consensus probability that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030 is 93%.
Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?
Fallback draft generated from 5 source(s) because normal LLM generation did not return a publishable candidate.
A Yahoo Finance article ( reports Microsoft's split with OpenAI, suggesting the move could benefit Microsoft's stock...
A Yahoo Finance article ( reports Microsoft's split with OpenAI, suggesting the move could benefit Microsoft's stock but implies a loss of critical compute resources for OpenAI.
As of May 24, 2026, the prediction market on Manifold markets indicates a 93% probability that OpenAI will design and...
As of May 24, 2026, the prediction market on Manifold markets indicates a 93% probability that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030 (source).
As of May 23, 2026, the prediction market platform Manifold Markets shows a 93% consensus that OpenAI will design and...
As of May 23, 2026, the prediction market platform Manifold Markets shows a 93% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030 (Source).
A prediction market on Manifold Markets shows 93% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets shows 93% consensus that OpenAI will design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030 (source: This reflects strong market belief in OpenAI's vertical integration into semiconductor design, which would reduce reliance on external GPU...
On May 23, 2026, Yahoo Finance reported that Anthropic's profit is set to double, humbling OpenAI's empire (source).
On May 23, 2026, Yahoo Finance reported that Anthropic's profit is set to double, humbling OpenAI's empire (source).
On May 23, 2026, the Manifold Markets prediction market question 'Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip...
On May 23, 2026, the Manifold Markets prediction market question 'Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?' closed with a consensus of 93% YES (Source 1).
OpenAI is set to file for an initial public offering (IPO) within days, targeting a September listing on the Nasdaq,...
OpenAI is set to file for an initial public offering (IPO) within days, targeting a September listing on the Nasdaq, according to a Wall Street Journal report cited by Yahoo Finance [23].