Prediction markets on Manifold Markets assign very low probabilities to SMIC outperforming TSMC in advanced...

Prediction markets on Manifold Markets assign very low probabilities to SMIC outperforming TSMC in advanced semiconductor manufacturing. As of June 2, 2026, the consensus for 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?' is only 4.61% YES (source). For 2028, the YES probability is 15.39% (source), and for 2033, 18.80% (source). Additionally, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm chip generation before 2026 is only 11% (source). These low probabilities reflect sustained market skepticism about SMIC's ability to close the gap with TSMC, indicating a bearish sentiment for SMIC's competitive position. The data suggests that despite China's investments, SMIC faces significant technological and geopolitical hurdles, reinforcing TSMC's leadership in advanced nodes. This signal is low confidence as it relies on prediction market data rather than concrete events.