Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Corp
spillover graph 2
market consensus 10prediction-market quotes (latest)
- 19%Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?manifold$517
- 5%Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?manifold$809resolved NO
- 15%Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?manifold$204
- 11%Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026?manifold$420resolved NO
- 56%Will Liang Mong-Song work at a semiconductor company other than SMIC within the next 5 years?manifold$50
- 19%Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?manifold$517
- 5%Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?manifold$809resolved NO
- 15%Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?manifold$204
- 11%Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026?manifold$420resolved NO
- 56%Will Liang Mong-Song work at a semiconductor company other than SMIC within the next 5 years?manifold$50
recent signals
Multiple Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-05-30 indicate sustained low confidence in SMIC's ability to match...
Multiple Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-05-30 indicate sustained low confidence in SMIC's ability to match TSMC's manufacturing technology.
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold source assess the probability that China's SMIC will outcompete TSMC...
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold source assess the probability that China's SMIC will outcompete TSMC in semiconductor manufacturing by various deadlines.
Two prediction market questions on Manifold Markets assess SMIC's ability to manufacture semiconductors that outcompete...
Two prediction market questions on Manifold Markets assess SMIC's ability to manufacture semiconductors that outcompete TSMC by various deadlines.
Multiple Manifold Markets prediction questions assess the probability that China's SMIC will manufacture semiconductors...
Multiple Manifold Markets prediction questions assess the probability that China's SMIC will manufacture semiconductors that outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by various end years.
On May 27, 2026, Tom's Hardware reported that China has added nine homegrown AI chips to its 'secure and reliable'...
On May 27, 2026, Tom's Hardware reported that China has added nine homegrown AI chips to its 'secure and reliable' government procurement list for the first time, signaling a continued move away from Nvidia chips (source).
On May 25-26, 2026, multiple reports emerged that Huawei has achieved a chip design breakthrough, likely leveraging...
On May 25-26, 2026, multiple reports emerged that Huawei has achieved a chip design breakthrough, likely leveraging SMIC's manufacturing capabilities to circumvent US sanctions.
Three prediction market questions on Manifold Markets assess the probability of China's SMIC outcompeting Taiwan's TSMC...
Three prediction market questions on Manifold Markets assess the probability of China's SMIC outcompeting Taiwan's TSMC in semiconductor manufacturing by various deadlines.
A prediction market on Manifold Markets as of 2026-05-23 shows low probabilities that China's SMIC will manufacture...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets as of 2026-05-23 shows low probabilities that China's SMIC will manufacture semiconductors competitive with TSMC: 4.61% by end of 2024, 15.39% by 2028, and 18.80% by 2033 (source 1, source 2, source 3).
Prediction market Manifold shows consensus probabilities for SMIC outcompeting TSMC are low: 4.61% by end of 2024,...
Prediction market Manifold shows consensus probabilities for SMIC outcompeting TSMC are low: 4.61% by end of 2024, 15.39% by 2028, and 18.80% by 2033 (source 1, source 2, source 3).
On May 22, 2026, the South China Morning Post reported that China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International...
On May 22, 2026, the South China Morning Post reported that China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) has cleared the final regulatory hurdle for its US$6 billion acquisition of SMNC (Source: SCMP).
Recent reports indicate a significant move by China's semiconductor industry, including SMIC, to develop a domestic...
Recent reports indicate a significant move by China's semiconductor industry, including SMIC, to develop a domestic alternative to ASML's lithography technology, a critical component in advanced chip manufacturing.