Data directory + hit-rate ledger

55 data sources · 1570 scored predictions

Every public source High Signal curates into the daily brief. We extract the info and keep the link— never the raw payload that's one query away. Duplicate stories across sources are collapsed, keeping the distinct-source count as corroboration.

55 sources45 with data now388,935 events in store31 live15 archive9 series

public hit-rate ledger — downloadable dataset

Every published market signal scored against subsequent moves. Hit-rate excludes pushes. Live = forward predictions made before the scoring window closed; Backfill = historical replay calibration. The dataset is the competitive moat — competitors cannot copy it without rebuilding the history from scratch.

live predictions
1428
forward calls
backfill calibration
142
historical replay
signal types (live)
411
distinct types scored

Small sample: fewer than 10 live predictions have directional outcomes. Treat the current hit-rate as calibration evidence, not proof of predictive quality.

download

License: CC-BY-4.0. Cite as “High Signal Public Hit-Rate Ledger” with the download date. Schema: signal_type, cohort, hit, miss, push, pending, total, hit_rate.

live predictions by signal type

typenhitmisspushhit-rate
partnership197000
new product launch118000
security risk86000
earnings surprise67000
export restriction590100%
design win50000
supply chain disruption30000
regulatory change30000
talent movement29000
guidance change26200100%
data center announcement23000
developer ecosystem drift23000
analyst revision19000
restructuring19000
pricing change18000
capex change hyperscaler18000
benchmark result14000
data center buildout13000
foundry capacity announcement12000
insider transaction cluster12000
devtool trust10000
competitive position sentiment10000
ip lawsuit9000
competitive position signal9000
hyperscaler internal chip9000
regional compute buildout9000
hbm supply shift8000
power ppa8000
ai edge hardware7000
m and a6000
demand signal6000
prediction market sentiment6000
ai pricing pressure5000
capex change neocloud5000
ai policy competition5000
ai chip development signal4000
compute budget controversy4000
sovereign ai announcement4000
compute budget discrepancy4000
antitrust action4000
ipo announcement4000
competitive threat4000
ipo filing3000
funding round3000
reputational risk3000
reputation risk3000
product delay3000
market share claim3000
product launch delay3000
capacity expansion3000
market share signal3000
prediction market probability3000
demand supply imbalance2000
misrepresentation allegation2000
government grant award2000
ecosystem expansion2000
quantum foundry announcement2000
government funding award2000
credibility concern2000
prediction market signal2000
custom chip development2000
partnership speculation2000
compute budget misrepresentation2000
hbm roadmap update2000
industrial ai adoption2000
custom ai chip development2000
compute claim dispute2000
market sentiment signal2000
transparency concern2000
credit facility update2000
demand surge2000
regulatory probe2000
capital raise2000
corporate bond issuance2000
physical ai acceleration2000
model release delay2000
equity offering oversubscribed2000
trust concern2000
competitive intensification2000
competitive position change2000
legal risk2000
monopoly position update2000
gpu compute disclosure controversy2000
ai capacity constraint2000
grid constraint2000
competitive threat debunked2000
product launch risk2000
capacity constraint hyperscaler2000
ai infra demand boost1000
competitor sentiment1000
prediction market bullish consensus1000
labor dispute resolved1000
monopoly status1000
gpu compute misrepresentation allegation1000
government contract win1000
pre earnings market cap surge1000
investor sentiment shift1000
deal failure1000
customer renewal1000
compute disclosure controversy1000
ai infrastructure partnership1000
new entrant speculation1000
ai strategy validation1000
institutional selling1000
competitive entry threat1000
market position update1000
sp500 inclusion1000
grant award1000
gpu budget controversy1000
technology investment1000
fundraising round1000
geopolitical escalation1000
trust speculation1000
corporate ai pullback1000
trust allegation1000
nasdaq 100 addition1000
competitive leadership claim1000
short seller activity1000
ai memory demand outlook1000
compute strategy change1000
efficiency claim controversy1000
operations expansion1000
new model launch1000
custom chip probability increase1000
ai innovation gap opinion1000
labor settlement1000
profitability deterioration1000
compute budget discrepancy signal1000
ai custom silicon indication1000
market cap milestone1000
inference optimization tool1000
customer adoption signal1000
call option volume surge1000
market position announcement1000
photonics investment1000
bullish options activity1000
demand outlook positive1000
partnership anticipation1000
funding valuation event1000
competitive dethronement1000
competitor market sentiment1000
reputation signal1000
valuation perception shift1000
optical supply chain expansion1000
valuation surge1000
monopoly threat sentiment1000
custom chip intention1000
mega funding round1000
ai wearable development1000
notable investor activity1000
speculative partnership indicator1000
market sentiment shift1000
node competitiveness doubt1000
competitive sentiment decline1000
revenue milestone1000
foundry customer signal1000
gpu usage credibility1000
market share leadership claim1000
ai startup funding1000
compute budget claim1000
product rumor1000
ai model launch delay1000
ai platform expansion1000
major shareholder guidance1000
claim credibility doubt1000
regulatory risk1000
capacity investment1000
megafab announcement1000
ai model api delay1000
competitive positioning1000
ai partnership speculation1000
partnership direction1000
social media ban1000
capex increase ecosystem1000
packaging capacity expansion1000
alleged compute misrepresentation1000
index inclusion1000
market probability change1000
index addition1000
monopoly uncertainty signal1000
chatgpt superapp overhaul1000
ecosystem growth signal1000
competitive standing signal1000
market expansion1000
ai chip sell off1000
euv output capacity upgrade1000
funding round valuation1000
custom ai chip signal1000
product launch delay regulatory1000
euv monopoly confirmation1000
ai infrastructure financing1000
chip manufacturing order1000
competitive positioning change1000
gpu lead time shift1000
gpu usage reporting accuracy1000
customer churn signal1000
platform update1000
new revenue stream1000
manufacturing capacity investment1000
institutional position increase1000
osat capacity expansion1000
award win1000
competitive moat confidence1000
euv monopoly outlook1000
competitive threat perception1000
valuation increase1000
capex change1000
on device ai challenge1000
customer commitment1000
demand indicator1000
governance risk escalation1000
competitor confidence decline1000
china demand softening1000
platform outage1000
cxl specification release1000
technology milestone miss1000
market sentiment event1000
sector sentiment1000
competitive pressure1000
capital markets activity1000
automotive memory demand shift1000
neocloud funding1000
ecosystem confidence signal1000
compute usage integrity question1000
ai capability gap1000
nuclear regulatory clearance1000
compute claim discrepancy1000
cuda kernel optimization1000
government contract loss1000
short report published1000
market share loss1000
misrepresentation claim1000
technology node gap1000
competitive sentiment change1000
agentic ai cpu demand increase1000
funding mega round1000
customer order win1000
government backing for data center power1000
supply chain disclosure concern1000
model competitive outlook1000
market share sentiment prediction1000
ai agent regulatory shutdown1000
ipo filing and regulatory engagement1000
compute budget credibility1000
sovereign data center risk1000
product demand surge1000
corporate debt issuance1000
ai market size prediction1000
competitive disruption1000
platform adoption growth1000
developer adoption spike1000
compute capacity deal1000
ipo timeline acceleration1000
compute buildout signal1000
ai infrastructure demand boost1000
competitive weakness signal1000
compute budget discrepancy allegation1000
cloud compute deal1000
memory capacity expansion1000
trust signal1000
infrastructure financing1000
equity offering consideration1000
ai talent hiring surge1000
technology gap widening1000
trust risk1000
starship test flight setback1000
stock split1000
capital injection1000
euv technology competition1000
gpu compute allegation1000
power architecture promotion1000
architecture market shift1000
earnings sell off1000
competitive moat threat1000
ai inference workload shift1000
compute cost discrepancy1000
ecosystem moat signal1000
compute claim controversy1000
training cost integrity signal1000
technology development risk1000
labor disruption threat1000
euv tool order surge1000
valuation target increase1000
monopoly probability signal1000
internal chip development signal1000
compute efficiency controversy1000
market sentiment1000
asic capacity unlock1000
production capacity expansion1000
ai chip probability increase1000
technology gap sentiment1000
compute funding1000
cuda ecosystem momentum1000
trust controversy1000
ai chip investment1000
disclosure controversy1000
supply chain investment1000
ai adoption slowdown forecast1000
capex increase1000
technology leadership change1000
prediction market odds1000
product economics shift1000
prediction market indicator1000
geopolitical risk signal1000
competitive entry1000
facility expansion1000
server manufacturing expansion1000
low cost pc push1000
product timeline risk1000
euv monopoly signal1000
competitive product sample1000
server expansion1000
venture capital investment1000
legal setback1000
compute budget disclosure controversy1000
ai investment sentiment shift1000
developer ecosystem sentiment1000
market leadership claim1000
manufacturing expansion1000
fundraising event1000
regulatory clearance1000
competitive position erosion1000
portfolio company ipo1000
open source ai optimization1000
foundry strategy setback1000
revenue acceleration1000
share rout1000
ai chip development speculation1000
test subsystem market share claim1000
hyperscaler capacity shift1000
investment ipo1000
inference cost reduction1000
prediction market sentiment shift1000
credit downgrade and project hurdle1000
customer event1000
advanced packaging competition1000
competitive threat assessment1000
partnership risk1000
data center tenant risk1000
competitive dynamics1000
competitor threat dismissed1000
legal settlement1000
infrastructure software development1000
cloud ai spending1000
ai inference demand uptick1000
market implied dominance1000
ai hiring surge1000
market cap trajectory indicator1000
packaging supply chain development1000
workforce expansion1000
quantum investment plan1000
technology gap signal1000
export restriction risk signal1000
technology gap1000
water constraint1000
agentic ai cpu demand1000
institutional ownership change1000
government stake discussion1000
competitive position deterioration1000
debt financing risk1000
prediction market bullish1000
bullish sentiment signal1000
compute capacity constraint1000
competitor shipment doubt1000
competitive position market sentiment1000
monopoly risk update1000
competitive moat reinforced1000
ipo filing preparations1000
memory supply diversification1000
enterprise cloud migration1000
security vulnerability cluster1000
lithography alternative emergence1000
competitive position1000
design loss1000
neocloud market growth forecast1000
equity offering1000
capacity demand surge1000
custom chip partnership1000
listing announcement1000
ai packaging demand outlook1000
capex increase semiconductor1000
government takedown request1000
competitive momentum1000
ai capex increase1000
euv monopoly reaffirmed1000
berkshire investment1000
software optimization release1000
market cap expectation signal1000
competitive outlook change1000
shipment delay risk1000
valuation consensus shift1000
terafab advancement1000
geopolitical data center risk1000
ai inference cost inversion1000
portfolio rotation signal1000
cloud capacity squeeze1000
chinese ai model competition1000
hbm demand concern1000
data center construction blockage1000
market cap sentiment signal1000
compute demand increase1000
hyperscaler ai model availability1000
ipo filing rumor1000
space based ai infrastructure plan1000
fundraising valuation surge1000
ai ecosystem expansion1000
developer ecosystem moat sentiment1000
memory cost impact on apple1000
valuation expansion signal1000
monopoly status confirmation1000
product delay signal1000

entity

Maps to a tracked company — can become a standalone signal.

corroboration

Official source, mostly entity-less — strengthens other signals.

thematic

Topic / keyword (entity-less) — feeds a domain thematically.
blueskyoptional key
guardianfree key
metaculusoptional key
nvdkeyless
podcast-indexoptional key
vc-portfolioskeyless⚖️

numeric

Time-series values — macro / energy context.