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Every published High Signal market call scored against subsequent market moves. Live = forward predictions made before the scoring window closed. Backfill = historical replay used to calibrate scoring. Push means the move was too small to call. Hit-rate excludes pushes. Licensed CC-BY-4.0.
Small sample: only 3 live predictions have a directional outcome. Treat this as calibration evidence, not proof.
| type | n | hit | miss | push | pending | hit-rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| partnership | 291 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 291 | — |
| new product launch | 198 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 198 | — |
| security risk | 110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 110 | — |
| design win | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 82 | — |
| earnings surprise | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70 | — |
| export restriction | 65 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 64 | 0% |
| developer ecosystem drift | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 | — |
| talent movement | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 | — |
| regulatory change | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | — |
| supply chain disruption | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | — |
| ai edge hardware | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | — |
| hyperscaler internal chip | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | — |
| data center announcement | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | — |
| guidance change | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 100% |
| pricing change | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | — |
| foundry capacity announcement | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | — |
| capex change hyperscaler | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | — |
| analyst revision | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | — |
| restructuring | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | — |
| benchmark result | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | — |
| data center buildout | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | — |
| competitive position signal | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | — |
| ip lawsuit | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | — |
| custom chip development | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | — |
| devtool trust | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | — |
| m and a | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | — |
| insider transaction cluster | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | — |
| competitive position sentiment | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | — |
| power ppa | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | — |
| physical ai acceleration | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | — |
| regional compute buildout | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | — |
| hbm supply shift | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | — |
| sovereign ai announcement | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | — |
| prediction market sentiment | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | — |
| competitive threat | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | — |
| ai policy competition | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | — |
| ai pricing pressure | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | — |
| design loss | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | — |
| competitive position change | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | — |
| capex change neocloud | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | — |
| demand signal | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | — |
| market share signal | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | — |
| ipo announcement | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | — |
| antitrust action | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | — |
| ai chip development signal | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| technology gap widening | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| product launch delay | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| funding round | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| compute budget controversy | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| compute budget discrepancy | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| capacity expansion | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| ipo filing | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| custom chip design | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| customer churn signal | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| demand surge | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| market sentiment shift | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| prediction market probability | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| product delay | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| capex change | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| prediction market signal | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| grid constraint | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| product shipment risk | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| custom ai chip development | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| reputation risk | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| reputational risk | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| market share claim | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| quantum foundry announcement | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| competitive sentiment decline | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| process node innovation | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| monopoly position update | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| credibility concern | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| compute budget misrepresentation | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| ai scaling law discovery | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| misrepresentation allegation | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| competitive threat signal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| industrial ai adoption | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| market sentiment | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| market share change | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| credit facility update | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| custom chip development signal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| market cap milestone | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| compute capacity constraint | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| competitive position | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| capacity constraint hyperscaler | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| legal risk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| corporate bond issuance | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| competitive intensification | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| hbm roadmap update | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| ai capacity constraint | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| market sentiment indicator | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| trust concern | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| market sentiment signal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| transparency concern | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| market share loss | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| government funding award | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| competitive threat debunked | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| monopoly durability signal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| model release delay | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| equity offering oversubscribed | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| technology roadmap doubt | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| competitive threat perception | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| custom chip intention | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| compute claim dispute | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| ecosystem expansion | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| gpu compute disclosure controversy | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| competitive entry | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| partnership speculation | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| competitive position erosion | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| custom chip probability increase | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| developer adoption spike | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| regulatory probe | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| product launch risk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| capital raise | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| product timeline risk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| government grant award | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| demand supply imbalance | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| technological competitiveness signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| funding round valuation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ipo capital raise | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly assessment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| legal settlement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| bullish sentiment signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly probability shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| legal setback | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capacity expansion plan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute disclosure controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| new entrant speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive threat intensifies | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| labor action capex risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| regulatory risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cxl specification release | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom chip design plan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| equity offering | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| portfolio company ipo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai adoption slowdown forecast | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| hbm demand concern | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom ai chip partnership | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| app store review cluster | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom silicon push | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market share sentiment prediction | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai hiring surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capex increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ipo listing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute budget credibility | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| profitability deterioration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| osat capacity expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai model launch delay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| lithography alternative emergence | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| software optimization release | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly status | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive dynamics | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| corporate ai pullback | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market cap expectation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| debt financing risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai ecosystem expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai hardware roadmap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly position signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive entry threat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| architecture market shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| low cost pc push | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| alleged compute misrepresentation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| semicap revenue decline | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| sentiment signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute budget discrepancy allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| data center construction blockage | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology node shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market sentiment event | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| production ramp | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| nuclear regulatory clearance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai innovation gap opinion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| new revenue stream | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| china domestic euv risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| clean energy investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive moat threat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| pre earnings market cap surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market cap speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| funding valuation event | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| terafab advancement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai infra demand boost | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai inference workload shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capex increase semiconductor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| on device ai challenge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| gpu lead time shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| modular data center trademark | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor product cancellation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| product demand surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| security vulnerability cluster | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cuda moat threat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| credit downgrade and project hurdle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| supply chain shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai infrastructure partnership | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| optical supply chain expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor entry pc market | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| euv technology competition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor confidence decline | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| supply chain disclosure concern | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market position announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| revenue milestone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| subsidiary ipo announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai platform expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai infrastructure financing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| memory capacity expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competition threat refuted | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai revenue milestone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive outlook change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| china demand softening | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| node competitiveness doubt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip probability increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| internal chip development signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| government backing for data center power | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| share rout | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cloud compute deal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| talent retention risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| efficiency claim controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology gap signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| disclosure controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive position weakness | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| trust risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| institutional ownership change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| euv monopoly signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| new model launch | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| demand weakness signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| funding mega round | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute funding | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute usage integrity question | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| euv monopoly reaffirmed | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute demand increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly threat sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| geopolitical trade risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly durability | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai infrastructure demand boost | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| speculative partnership indicator | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| nationalization risk signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| valuation increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| model competitive outlook | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market leadership claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip development speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| prediction market bullish consensus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market cap sentiment signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| platform update | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| inference optimization tool | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| foundry customer signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| geopolitical risk increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute buildout signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive threat dismissed | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| semiconductor fab investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute budget discrepancy signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| investor sentiment shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute budget claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| social media ban | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| talent risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| workforce expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| space based ai infrastructure plan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| government contract win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai strategy validation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| equity offering consideration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| earnings sell off | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom chip partnership | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive threat increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| euv monopoly persistence | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| data center attack | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| pricing pressure | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive moat confidence | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly sentiment update | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| government stake discussion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| government contract loss | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market probability change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| quantum investment plan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| gpu compute allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute claim controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai inference demand uptick | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market cap sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute strategy change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| large stake disclosure | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market position update | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| developer ecosystem sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| labor disruption threat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor shipment doubt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| deal failure | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| product delay signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| vmware customer exodus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| partnership anticipation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| water constraint | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market position claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market share gain | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive position degradation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| labor dispute resolved | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technological capability signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| starship test flight setback | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| chip development signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| sovereign data center risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| bullish options activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capacity demand surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| production capacity expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| memory supply source change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| infrastructure financing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| trust allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| gpu quality concern | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| data center tenant risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market implied dominance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai wearable development | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technological catch up doubt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip prediction | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom silicon demand increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip development indication | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly probability signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| software compatibility issue | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market share leadership claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| revenue reacceleration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| hyperscaler ai model availability | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive pressure | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive advantage | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai partnership speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive threat assessment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| institutional selling | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cuda kernel optimization | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| operations expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute efficiency controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| trust signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| manufacturing capacity investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| misrepresentation claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| product ship uncertainty | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| platform outage | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| sp500 inclusion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| prediction market consensus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai investment sentiment shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| foundry strategy setback | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| euv monopoly outlook | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| hyperscaler capacity shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| infrastructure software development | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive positioning change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| export restriction risk signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| neocloud funding | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| customer renewal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ecosystem moat signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom silicon shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| call option volume surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| packaging supply chain development | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom ai chip design | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| device financing program launch | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| prediction market odds | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| advanced packaging competition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| sentiment survey | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| gpu usage reporting accuracy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| governance risk escalation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| chinese model adoption surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology gap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology milestone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive sentiment change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| product economics shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| rumor denial | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive threat lithography | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive positioning | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capacity investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology milestone miss | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| demand signal regional | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| valuation surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| validation differentiation trend | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive parity sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| geopolitical escalation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor viability market signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| foundry profit recovery | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| open source ai optimization | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| valuation target increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cloud capacity squeeze | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| berkshire investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| euv output capacity upgrade | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| grant award | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive product sample | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive moat reinforced | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| investment ipo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor emergence | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| facility expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| tariff mitigation move | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive and talent risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly risk perception | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| valuation sentiment shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| hiring spree | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| major shareholder guidance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| product rumor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| venture capital investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| short seller activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute capacity deal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| developer ecosystem expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| government intervention foundry | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capex increase ecosystem | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| relative valuation signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai startup funding | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| labor settlement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| sector sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| server expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| inference cost reduction | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive disruption | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| notable investor activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| chip design intent signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive threat climate | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ecosystem confidence signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| enterprise cloud migration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly status uncertainty | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| memory capex increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capital raise ai lab | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive position market sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| risc v adoption signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| chip manufacturing order | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| megafab announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| developer ecosystem moat sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| index inclusion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai capex increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market sentiment positive | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive threat emerging | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai inference cost inversion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| gpu budget controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| chip strategy signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| open model competition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| agentic ai cpu demand increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| government takedown request | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| agentic ai cpu demand | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| china ai chip competition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive positioning doubt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| nasdaq 100 addition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai custom silicon indication | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai packaging demand outlook | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| prediction market bullish | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| index addition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| geopolitical risk signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| supply chain investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ipo filing rumor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai model api delay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| valuation expansion signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| geopolitical data center risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ecosystem growth signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai market size prediction | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology development risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| customer event | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor threat dismissed | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute cost discrepancy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| claim credibility doubt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| prediction market consensus signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| packaging capacity expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| shipment delay risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| manufacturing expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai memory demand outlook | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| data center nationalization risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ipo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| prediction market indicator | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| revenue acceleration and infrastructure deepening | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| neocloud market growth forecast | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ipo signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| short report published | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| revenue growth acceleration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| euv tool order surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capital injection | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology node gap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| mega funding round | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip competition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| prediction market sentiment shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| investor confidence signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai talent hiring surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom chip intent | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| trust speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| platform adoption growth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cuda ecosystem momentum | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly risk update | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai agent regulatory shutdown | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capital markets activity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| process technology breakthrough | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| listing announcement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom ai chip signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute claim discrepancy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| valuation consensus shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom chip exploration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| chatgpt superapp overhaul | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| valuation perception shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ecosystem moat uncertainty | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly position reaffirmed | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ipo filing and regulatory engagement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| security incentive change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cloud ai competitive pressure | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly status confirmation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive position deterioration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive technology gap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| partnership direction | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip development indicator | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| capital equipment demand increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| customer win and capital raise | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| customer financing program | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute budget allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cloud ai spending | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive dethronement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| corporate debt issuance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai capability gap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| institutional position increase | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| server manufacturing expansion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| customer order win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitor market sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| gpu usage credibility | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip development | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| regulatory clearance | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| fundraising valuation surge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| partnership risk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market cap expectation signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology leadership change | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| revenue acceleration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| cuda compatibility alternative | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| customer commitment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ipo filing preparations | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ipo timeline acceleration | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| product launch delay regulatory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| monopoly uncertainty signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| fundraising round | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| award win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| portfolio rotation signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| euv monopoly confirmation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology stagnation signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| test subsystem market share claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| trust controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| customer adoption signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| product launch ramp | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| memory cost impact on apple | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| technology gap sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom chip speculation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| demand outlook positive | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| photonics investment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| power architecture promotion | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| stock split | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| reputation signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| automotive memory demand shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive momentum | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive standing signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| market cap trajectory indicator | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| eda competitive threat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| custom chip development intention | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| customer appreciation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| asic capacity unlock | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai capability leap | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| bullish market sentiment | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| gpu compute misrepresentation allegation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| memory supply diversification | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| growth funding round | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| demand indicator | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| chinese ai model competition | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| compute budget disclosure controversy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive leadership claim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| fundraising event | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| training cost integrity signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive weakness signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| competitive positioning signal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| foundation model leader rating | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai chip sell off | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| ai assistant test | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| type | n | hit | miss | push | pending | hit-rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| partnership | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 100% |
| guidance change | 20 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 20% |
| design win | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | — |
| data center announcement | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | — |
| new product launch | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | — |
| export restriction | 10 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 33% |
| capex change neocloud | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | — |
| restructuring | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 50% |
| foundry capacity announcement | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | — |
| earnings surprise | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| capex change hyperscaler | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | — |
| analyst revision | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 100% |
| hbm supply shift | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| regulatory change | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| insider transaction cluster | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| ip lawsuit | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| talent movement | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| gpu lead time shift | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| antitrust action | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |