markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%
market:manifold- 2026-07-04Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%
NVDAmarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner': YES=83.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?': YES=74.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5
Polymarket top market 'Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?': YES=30.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5
Polymarket top market 'Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5': YES=22.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Morocco?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals': YES=93.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?': YES=99.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Spread: Canada (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Canada (-1.5)': YES=4.80%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Morocco?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=37.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 3 France?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 3 France?': YES=2.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Paraguay vs. France: O/U 3.5
Polymarket top market 'Paraguay vs. France: O/U 3.5': YES=37.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Morocco?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: FaZe vs 3DMAX (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Polymarket top market 'Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners': YES=40.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Paraguay vs. France: O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'Paraguay vs. France: O/U 1.5': YES=83.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 France?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 France?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Team Vitality vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B': YES=99.90%
NRGmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5
Polymarket top market 'Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5': YES=91.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?': YES=26.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Morocco?': YES=4.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon WTA: Amanda Anisimova vs Madison Keys': YES=24.00%
KEYSmarket:polymarket- 2026-07-04Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?
Polymarket top market 'Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 3 France?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 3 France?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 France?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 France?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.5': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Morocco?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander Bublik': YES=52.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage': YES=41.00%
market:polymarket