markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Nvidia Stock close higher in Feb than Jan': YES=43.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.53%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Argentina (-1.5)': YES=65.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=11.10%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Algeria?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 3?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?': YES=7.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?': YES=76.00%

Polymarket top market 'Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance': YES=66.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs': YES=98.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=42.60%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Switzerland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=84.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?': YES=32.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=27.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Algeria?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance': YES=80.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?': YES=45.00%