markets

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?': YES=72.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=72.90%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=70.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 0.5': YES=93.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners': YES=67.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Belgium?': YES=14.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Belgium (-2.5)': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Portugal vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?': YES=19.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=7.20%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Spain (-3.5)': YES=3.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.20%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance': YES=78.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=65.00%

Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance': YES=86.00%

Polymarket top market 'Portugal vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Portugal (-2.5)': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals': YES=34.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=66.00%