markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=28.21%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=96.42%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=34.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Nvidia Stock close higher in Feb than Jan': YES=43.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Morocco?': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?': YES=7.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 4?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=23.00%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Zachary Svajda': YES=84.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance': YES=34.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.60%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Alliance vs 9z (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage': YES=28.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=3.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk': YES=43.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 France?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 4?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Sofia Kenin win the 2026 Women’s US Open?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?': YES=61.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Morocco?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?': YES=52.00%