markets

Polymarket consensus on 'Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?': YES=84.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket consensus on 'MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?': YES=41.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=16.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=3.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=3.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=12.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=1.50%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=3.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=53.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=5.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=6.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=2.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=3.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=6.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=3.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=7.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=30.90%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=2.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=26.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?': YES=14.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?': YES=14.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?': YES=15.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?': YES=6.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?': YES=3.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?': YES=44.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'GTA VI released before June 2026?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?': YES=48.90%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?': YES=50.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Trump out as President before GTA VI?': YES=51.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?': YES=49.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?': YES=52.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?': YES=59.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a new, full-length Stargate series premiere in 2023?': YES=2.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get new Stargate before 2025?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will President Trump speak negatively about Sam Altman by the end of February 2025?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion "Stargate"?': YES=4.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Will "Quotes from the Stargate press conference" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?': YES=4.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Stargate Argentina built before 2028?': YES=36.06%