markets

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=11.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=65.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close above $225 on May 21, 2026 after earnings?': YES=42.85%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.50%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.50%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=6.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=5.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=4.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=10.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=24.90%

Polymarket consensus on 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=6.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%