markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-28 · run status: success with data
- 2026-05-25Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=17.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?': YES=18.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=26.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=25.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=49.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=14.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=40.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=5.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=38.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?': YES=7.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?': YES=10.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?': YES=76.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-25GTA VI released before June 2026?
Polymarket consensus on 'GTA VI released before June 2026?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-25Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?': YES=49.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-25Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-25Trump out as President before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Trump out as President before GTA VI?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-25Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?': YES=49.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-25New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-25New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket