markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
- 2026-05-29Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?': YES=4.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?': YES=55.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-29Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-29Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=11.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?': YES=67.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?': YES=42.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-29Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?': YES=77.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=5.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?': YES=0.35%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=31.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?': YES=0.10%
AMZNmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-29Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?': YES=29.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage': YES=26.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?': YES=41.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=46.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik': YES=73.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=27.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=10.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-29Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?': YES=38.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?': YES=22.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?': YES=30.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket