markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
- 2026-05-30Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=25.16%
NVDAmarket:manifold - 2026-05-30Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026
Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.27%
NVDAmarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=72.00%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.33%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%
GOOGLmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%
GOOGLmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?': YES=80.15%
ARMmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?': YES=36.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will David Njoku play for Denver Broncos in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien': YES=60.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=98.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?': YES=64.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?': YES=69.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-30Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-30Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=16.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=25.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-30Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=9.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ryan Flaherty be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phillies?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?': YES=99.90%
NVDAmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will David Njoku play for Kansas City Chiefs in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Jakob Glesnes win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
Polymarket top market 'Iran closes its airspace by May 27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-30Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=16.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will David Brekalo win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=32.20%
market:polymarket