markets

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=34.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=14.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=7.32%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=41.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.93%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=19.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=11.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.60%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=72.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?': YES=80.15%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=67.61%

Polymarket top market 'Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will United States win on 2026-05-31?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=22.00%

Polymarket top market 'Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays': YES=6.20%

Polymarket top market 'Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?': YES=22.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.50%