markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=10.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=6.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=5.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=4.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=11.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=20.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Polymarket consensus on 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=5.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-02Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-02Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.40%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-02Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=6.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=6.40%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-02Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=35.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?': YES=99.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?': YES=49.60%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-02Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-02Trump out as President before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Trump out as President before GTA VI?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket