markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=1.23%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 2?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 2?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=90.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 2?': YES=97.50%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 2?': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Austria?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 2?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?': YES=3.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Owen Caissie win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 2?': YES=4.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Alliance vs NIP (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Kansas City Royals win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?': YES=18.75%

Polymarket top market 'Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Austin Reaves play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Switzerland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=37.60%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?': YES=26.75%

Polymarket top market 'Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=67.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=29.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?': YES=85.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 2?': YES=99.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 2?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kingston Flemings win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=17.60%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?': YES=22.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=13.00%