markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
- 2026-07-04Will United States win on 2026-07-06?
Polymarket top market 'Will United States win on 2026-07-06?': YES=34.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: B8 vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage': YES=87.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5
Polymarket top market 'Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance': YES=68.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=39.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Paraguay vs. France: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Paraguay vs. France: O/U 2.5': YES=59.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: B8 vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MIBR (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage': YES=38.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?
Polymarket top market 'Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?': YES=38.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Spread: France (-2.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: France (-2.5)': YES=36.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Will Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw?': YES=29.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?
Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Will Canada win on 2026-07-04?
Polymarket top market 'Will Canada win on 2026-07-04?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 1 Winner': YES=46.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?
Polymarket top market 'Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?': YES=30.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-04Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance': YES=47.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=9.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Spread: France (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: France (-1.5)': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Xiyu Wang win the 2026 Women’s US Open?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-04Will England win on 2026-07-05?
Polymarket top market 'Will England win on 2026-07-05?': YES=40.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Katie Boulter win the 2026 Women’s US Open?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports - Game 3 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs': YES=46.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket