markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=10.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=6.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=5.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=4.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=11.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=20.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-05Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Polymarket consensus on 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-05Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-05Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-05Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=6.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-05Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=7.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-05Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=35.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=6.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-05Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=12.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket