markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.81%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Polymarket top market 'Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Egypt?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Colombia?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group A': YES=70.00%

Polymarket top market 'Switzerland vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance': YES=78.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Colombia?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Egypt?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=19.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will no listed leader be out before 2027?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Colombia (-5.5)': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=56.10%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Egypt?': YES=3.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=12.30%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Egypt?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will France win on 2026-07-09?': YES=62.00%

Polymarket top market 'Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Egypt?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 7?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Egypt?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs': YES=64.00%