markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%
market:manifold- 2026-07-07Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%
NVDAmarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Switzerland vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score': YES=51.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 7?': YES=94.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on July 7?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-07Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Egypt?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Egypt?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 7?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?': YES=77.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-07Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Colombia?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Colombia?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-07Argentina vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5
Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5': YES=46.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?': YES=5.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-07Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5': YES=56.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-07Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Egypt?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Egypt?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-07Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?': YES=75.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?': YES=56.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-07Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Egypt?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Egypt?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-07France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance': YES=78.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-07Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Egypt?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Egypt?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=18.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-07Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?
Polymarket top market 'Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will no listed leader be out before 2027?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-07Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=56.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-07Spread: Colombia (-5.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Colombia (-5.5)': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-07Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5': YES=42.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-07Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=12.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners': YES=52.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-07Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Egypt?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Egypt?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 7?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-07Will France win on 2026-07-09?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win on 2026-07-09?': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs': YES=64.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-07Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Jan-Lennard Struff': YES=94.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-07France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-07Bitcoin Up or Down on July 7?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 7?': YES=35.00%
market:polymarket