markets

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=54.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=54.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5)': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?': YES=95.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=40.60%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 8?': YES=3.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=42.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=22.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=49.90%

Polymarket top market 'Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?': YES=4.10%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?': YES=93.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner': YES=34.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 8?': YES=98.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Morocco?': YES=4.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=93.70%

Polymarket top market 'Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?': YES=19.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=11.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 8?': YES=99.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=13.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?': YES=0.10%