markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.81%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=54.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=7.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5)': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=80.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 8?': YES=99.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?': YES=95.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?': YES=19.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=19.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=40.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 8?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?': YES=95.40%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Morocco?': YES=4.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 8?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=43.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Morocco?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?': YES=21.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?': YES=94.90%

Polymarket top market 'Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?': YES=4.70%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=10.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=94.50%

Polymarket top market 'Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?': YES=19.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 8?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Games Total: O/U 3.5': YES=70.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=11.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance': YES=75.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?': YES=40.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner': YES=31.00%