markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-28 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=7.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=81.00%
NVDAmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?': YES=94.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?
Polymarket top market 'Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=19.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08Games Total: O/U 3.5
Polymarket top market 'Games Total: O/U 3.5': YES=68.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Morocco?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=40.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 8?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=96.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?
Polymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?': YES=95.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=47.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?': YES=95.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?': YES=4.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=43.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=8.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 8?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=11.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance': YES=75.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5': YES=53.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?': YES=38.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=60.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5)': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)': YES=36.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Matt Olson win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Will England win on 2026-07-11?
Polymarket top market 'Will England win on 2026-07-11?': YES=53.00%
market:polymarket