markets

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 15?': YES=5.40%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Braunschweig: Vilius Gaubas vs Facundo Acosta': YES=2.20%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5': YES=75.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Morocco?': YES=14.00%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic': YES=81.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=3.90%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: France (-1.5)': YES=35.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Morocco?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Norway (-4.5)': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Belgium (-4.5)': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?': YES=4.10%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance': YES=74.00%

Polymarket top market 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 9?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 9?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Games Total: O/U 3.5': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 9?': YES=99.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5': YES=41.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Morocco?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Morocco?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?': YES=20.00%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner': YES=99.90%