markets

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=6.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=15.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=41.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=6.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by September 30, 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=13.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by August 31, 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?': YES=8.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?': YES=20.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of April Fools 2027?': YES=71.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?': YES=91.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?': YES=20.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?': YES=90.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=31.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will openAI cancel o5 model?': YES=98.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go public in 2026?': YES=11.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?': YES=11.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI raise $100b': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2027?': YES=83.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the next OpenAI model be closer to Fable-class than to Opus-class?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?': YES=90.08%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=30.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?': YES=23.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=76.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=94.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AI labs need to switch to monitoring chips for a moratorium on AI development to work?': YES=54.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?': YES=19.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Sohu AI chip ship to customers within a year?': YES=2.61%

Manifold consensus on 'US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?': YES=3.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the purchase of 3k NVIDIA H100 chips through Saudi's KAUST lead to a functional form of generative AI by June 2024?': YES=14.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI ship functional chips to customers by December 31st 2025?': YES=8.02%