markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
- 2026-07-09Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=12.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=20.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=7.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-09Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Morocco?': YES=4.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-09Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-09Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Morocco?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=66.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-09Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?
Polymarket top market 'Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-09Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will no listed leader be out before 2027?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=79.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will James Harden play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-09Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Morocco?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-09Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=18.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs': YES=40.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-09Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=32.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-09France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=15.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-09Will France win on 2026-07-09?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win on 2026-07-09?': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-09France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance': YES=77.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-09Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=20.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-09Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=7.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket