markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=54.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=54.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner drop out by July 31?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Belgium (-4.5)': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 9?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=5.80%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?': YES=4.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun': YES=95.70%

Polymarket top market 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=5.30%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: France (-1.5)': YES=35.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 15?': YES=6.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Morocco?': YES=2.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 9?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Morocco?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Morocco?': YES=4.10%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'Newport: Lea Ma vs Clervie Ngounoue': YES=99.90%