markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%
NVDAmarket:manifold- 2026-07-08Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%
NVDAmarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=46.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds': YES=44.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Morocco?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08Will England win on 2026-07-11?
Polymarket top market 'Will England win on 2026-07-11?': YES=53.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 15?': YES=8.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08Spread: Belgium (-4.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Belgium (-4.5)': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08France vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5': YES=75.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=5.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?': YES=4.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Morocco?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?': YES=5.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Morocco?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08Spread: France (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: France (-1.5)': YES=36.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=5.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Newport: Lea Ma vs Clervie Ngounoue
Polymarket top market 'Newport: Lea Ma vs Clervie Ngounoue': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?
Polymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?': YES=97.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 8?
Polymarket top market 'S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 8?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs 1win - Game 2 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich': YES=85.00%
market:polymarket