markets

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=39.21%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 10?': YES=96.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime?': YES=42.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Spain leading at halftime?': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5': YES=31.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Norway (-4.5)': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=8.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?': YES=5.40%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Belgium?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner': YES=32.00%

Polymarket top market 'Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?': YES=2.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?': YES=93.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=11.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Belgium?': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Belgium?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs BIG - Map 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Draymond Green play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: FaZe vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffs': YES=40.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=38.50%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Belgium?': YES=1.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.50%

Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%